Venezuela slips further into chaos

The Venezuelan opposition is in talks with sympathetic military and civilian officials in a bid to force out President Nicolás Maduro, self-proclaimed interim president Juan Guaidó said.

Meanwhile, Maduro has threatened the US against any form of intervention, possibly retracting his 72-hour deadline for US diplomats to leave the country.

Background

From 1948-1958 the South American country was under military dictatorship. 23rd January marks the day a civilian-military movement overthrew the government of Gen. Marcos Pérez Jiménez in Venezuela. Gen. Marcos Pérez Jiménez was feared and hated in his country while mocked as the prototype of the Latin American military despot. During his reign, government spending on education and health was slashed, and the earnings from oil sales were diverted into lavish, costly and superfluous construction projects.

Nicolas Maduro took office in 2013. Under his leadership, there has been a spike in inflation and shortage of goods. A drop in oil prices has added to the administration’s problems. He has retained power by weakening institutions and rigging elections. He has been accused of committing serious human rights abuses and engaging in rampant corruption. Despite having the world's largest proven oil deposits, many Venezuelans are living in abject poverty.

The UN says 1.6 million Venezuelans have fled the country since the economic meltdown in 2015. Venezuela’s economy has contracted by 35 per cent since 2013, much larger than the one experienced by the USA during the Great Depression in the 1930s.

On January 23, US President Donald Trump recognised Juan Guaido as the ‘legitimate’ President of Venezuela. In retaliation, Nicolas Maduro severed all diplomatic ties with Washington and asked all US Diplomatic staff to leave within 72 hours.

Analysis

Backed by the United States and a host of Latin American countries, Guaidó also said the opposition will test the socialist government by bringing in food aid to ease a crippling humanitarian crisis.

Guaidó and his opposition are locked in a high-stakes play to drive Maduro from power. In Caracas, Maduro’s top brass and defence minister have sworn their allegiance to him.

The new head of Venezuela’s democratically elected National Assembly — a body stripped of its power by Maduro in 2017 but still recognized internationally — Guaidó has argued that Maduro is illegitimate and must leave power. Maduro was elected to a second six-year term last year, but the vote was widely derided as fraudulent.

Virtually unknown outside of Venezuela before this month, Guaidó, a 35-year-old industrial engineer, proclaimed himself interim president last week.

Guaidó said that talks with the military were proceeding behind the scenes. He also hailed a move on Saturday by Maduro’s former military attache in Washington to switch allegiance to Guaidó.

“We have been in talks with government officials, civilian and military men,” Guaidó said. “This is a very delicate subject involving personal security. We are meeting with them, but discreetly.”

Antonio Rivero, a Venezuelan general in exile in Miami, said he has spoken with high, middle and lower military officials who find fault with Maduro but remain fearful of a full break.

“Many soldiers are desperate,” Rivero said. “The armed forces are broken already.”

The history of U.S. military involvement in Latin America has raised questions about whether the White House would direct a military intervention to oust Maduro. President Trump has said that “all options” are on the table, while defence officials have sought to tamp down speculation that the Pentagon could become involved.

Senator Marco Rubio disputed that the United States would participate in a coup. He said the United States is “simply supporting the democratic institutions” in Venezuela. “This is the U.S. supporting the people of Venezuela, who want their constitution and democracy followed,” he said. “That’s a fact.”

Assessment

Our assessment is that the military is an influential ally for Nicolas Maduro in the ongoing power struggle in the country. We believe that if the protests turn violent, the military will be the decisive factor in ensuring victory for any faction and the US might seriously consider a military intervention to restore law and order in the country. 

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