Venezuelans preparing for anti-govt protests

In a bid to topple the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's government, hundreds and thousands of citizens are expected to take to the streets and march in protest.

The date of the march will coincide with the anniversary of the 1958 coup that overthrew military dictator Marcos Perez Jimenez.

Background

From 1948-1958 the South American country was under military dictatorship. 23rd January marks the day a civilian-military movement overthrew the government of Gen. Marcos Pérez Jiménez in Venezuela. Gen. Marcos Pérez Jiménez was feared and hated in his country while mocked as the prototype of the Latin American military despot. During his reign, government spending on education and health was slashed, and the earnings from oil sales were diverted into lavish, costly and superfluous construction projects.

Nicolas Maduro took office in 2013. Under his leadership, there has been a spike in inflation and shortage of goods. A drop in oil prices has added to the administration’s problems. He has retained power by weakening institutions and rigging elections. He has been accused of committing serious human rights abuses and engaging in rampant corruption. Despite having the world's largest proven oil deposits, many Venezuelans are living in abject poverty.

The UN says 1.6 million Venezuelans have fled the country since the economic meltdown in 2015. Venezuela’s economy has contracted by 35 per cent since 2013, much larger than the one experienced by the USA during the Great Depression in the 1930s. 

Analysis

Hundreds and thousands of people are expected to fill the streets in protest against the current President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro. This protest has been planned to coincide with the day military dictatorship fell in the country, thus marking 61 years after restoring democracy.

The opposition leader, Juan Guaidó has organised the protest. He also called this a "historic appointment with the people". The opposition-controlled National Assembly has accused Maduro’s government of "usurping power" and calling for new elections.

While speaking from a rooftop with his fist raised, Guaidó proclaimed: “We are tired of this disaster. We know this isn’t a fight of a single day but one that requires lots of resistance.” The opposition leader called for these demonstrations as Maduro begins his second term. Mr. Guaidó wants to replace Maduro and serve as an interim president ahead of elections.

A Retired Maj. Gen., Cliver Alcala, a one-time aide to Chavez and now in exile, believes that the opposition’s newfound momentum has reverberated with the military’s lower ranks, many of whom are suffering the same hardships as regular Venezuelan families.

These protests come just two days after another protest against the President. Twenty-seven members of Venezuela's National Guard had been arrested after they were allegedly revolting against the government in the capital, Caracas. However, government officials dismissed it as a cover to steal weapons.

Recently, foreign Ministers from 12 nations in the Latin American region including Canada are questioning the legitimacy President Nicolas Maduro as he begins his second term. Governments of these nations were urging him to hand over power as the only path of restoring democracy in Venezuela.

The multilateral body, The Lima Group, have also urged Maduro to refrain from taking the presidential oath but instead cede power to the opposition-controlled congress until new, fairer elections are held. The Lima Group, consisting of 14-member nations, was formed by mostly conservative-run regional governments to defuse the crisis in Venezuela that is increasingly threatening regional stability. 

The US Vice President Mike Pence also showed his support to the Venezuelans planning to march. In a video posted on Twitter, he said: "We are with you. We stand with you and we will stay with you until democracy is restored and you reclaim your birthright of libertad (freedom).”

Recently, the US President Donald Trump also said that he recognises the opposition leader as the interim president in Venezuela. This announcement came just minutes after Juan Guaidó declared himself as the acting leader in Caracas. Besides, a number of leaders in the South American nations such as Brazil, Columbia and Peru have all recognised Guaidó as Venezuela's legitimate president. 

Counterpoint

According to Dimitris Pantoulas, a Caracas-based political analyst, despite intimidation being effective in the past, he believes it may not work this time. He said, discontentment appears to be more widespread and the ranks of security forces and government-allied groups have been diminishing due to a mass exodus of mostly young Venezuelans.

“The government is resorting to its old tricks, but the people no longer believe them,” Pantoulas said.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the opposition leader is utilising the historic date of the coup as a pivot to motivate the citizens to protest against the current President. The lack of basic economic necessities is most likely to hinder the participation of the Venezuelans in such a protest . We believe that further foreign intervention with the objective of addressing the economic crisis and political turmoil could have a positive impact on the country.