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Military backs Maduro

January 26, 2019 | Expert Insights

The embattled government of Venezuela struck back against its opponents, winning strong support from the country’s armed forces and the solid backing of Russia, which warned the United States not to intervene.

Background

From 1948-1958 the South American country was under military dictatorship. 23rd January marks the day a civilian-military movement overthrew the government of Gen. Marcos Pérez Jiménez in Venezuela. Gen. Marcos Pérez Jiménez was feared and hated in his country while mocked as the prototype of the Latin American military despot. During his reign, government spending on education and health was slashed, and the earnings from oil sales were diverted into lavish, costly and superfluous construction projects.

Nicolas Maduro took office in 2013. Under his leadership, there has been a spike in inflation and shortage of goods. A drop in oil prices has added to the administration’s problems. He has retained power by weakening institutions and rigging elections. He has been accused of committing serious human rights abuses and engaging in rampant corruption. Despite having the world's largest proven oil deposits, many Venezuelans are living in abject poverty.

The UN says 1.6 million Venezuelans have fled the country since the economic meltdown in 2015. Venezuela’s economy has contracted by 35 per cent since 2013, much larger than the one experienced by the USA during the Great Depression in the 1930s.

On January 23, US President Donald Trump recognised Juan Guaido as the ‘legitimate’ President of Venezuela. In retaliation, Nicolas Maduro severed all diplomatic ties with Washington and asked all US diplomatic staff to leave within 72 hours.

Analysis

The Trump administration pressed its case on Thursday, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling on all countries in the hemisphere to reject Mr. Maduro and “align themselves with democracy,” setting up a test of wills with the Kremlin.

The events put Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, at the centre of a Cold War-style showdown between Russia, an ally that has shored up his government with billions of dollars, and the United States, which has denounced him as a corrupt autocrat with no legitimacy.

Only a day before, Mr. Maduro’s political nemesis, the opposition leader Juan Guaidó, seemed to have the momentum. During nationwide protests against the government, he proclaimed himself the country’s rightful president, earning endorsements from President Trump and several governments in the region.

It was Mr. Maduro’s turn to put Mr. Guaidó on defence. In a televised news conference, the leader of Venezuela’s armed forces declared loyalty to Mr. Maduro and said the opposition’s effort to replace him amounted to an attempted coup. In a further blow to the opposition, Russia warned the United States against meddling in Venezuela. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia telephoned Mr. Maduro and “emphasized that destructive external interference is a gross violation of the fundamental norms of international law,” according to a statement on the Kremlin’s official website.

The United States ignored the admonitions, trying to rally other countries to reject what Mr. Pompeo called “Maduro’s tyranny.” “His regime is morally bankrupt, it’s economically incompetent and it is profoundly corrupt. It is undemocratic to the core,” Mr. Pompeo told a meeting in Washington of the 35-member Organization of American States.

The United States also offered $20 million in emergency aid to Mr. Guaidó’s side and requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on the Venezuela crisis. Taken together, the events escalated the confusion and conflict over who is the rightful president of Venezuela, the oil-rich and formerly prosperous country upended by political repression and severe economic hardship under Mr. Maduro.

Mr. Maduro was sworn in for his second term this month after an election widely viewed as rigged. Mr. Guaidó argues that, as the president of the National Assembly, an opposition-controlled legislative body, he has the constitutional authority to assume power because Mr. Maduro had taken office illegally.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the military is an influential ally for Nicolas Maduro in the ongoing power struggle in the country. We believe that if the protests turn violent, the military will be the decisive factor in ensuring victory for a faction - due to their extensive training, organisational skills and experience with firearms.