Sudan’s Bashir tries to end prolonged protests

Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s President, on February 25 unveiled new measures to end a 10-week long protest. He also made changes to the country’s foreign currency policies.

Background 

Protests began in Sudan on 19 December 2018, when the National Congress Party headquarters in Atbara was burned down due to the increase in the price of bread. Fuel and bread costs, high inflation, and a shortage of cash in the economy have contributed to public discontent. The protests quickly evolved into demonstrations demanding that President Omar al-Bashir step down.

Access to social media and instant messaging was cut off on 21 December by the country's major service providers, with technical evidence collected by the NetBlocks internet observatory and Sudanese volunteers indicating the installation of "an extensive internet censorship regime".

In January 2018, large protests started on the streets of Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, in opposition to the rising prices of basic goods. The protests grew quickly and found support from different opposition parties. Youth and women's movements also joined the protests. Authorities used tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition to disperse demonstrators, causing dozens of deaths and injuries.

Analysis

Omar al-Bashir declared a state of National Emergency on February 22 and also gave full powers to the military forces in order to stop the protests that began in December. On February 25, Bashir gave the country’s armed forces sweeping powers to raid buildings where “suspicious activities were being carried out” and to also search for people.

The decrees came amidst fresh protests in various parts of the capital Khartoum, where security forces used tear gas against hundreds of students demonstrating inside the campus of the country’s oldest women’s university.

Since the state of emergency was declared, hundreds of pick-up trucks with mounted machine guns have been deployed onto Khartoum's streets, along with armoured personnel carriers. Activists and protesters have ridiculed the declaration of a state of emergency with all the extra powers that it gives the security forces. They have pointed out that they have already been living under a state of emergency where the authorities use force with impunity, arrest people without warrants and detain them without investigation.

Bashir also dissolved the government after just five months in office and has replaced all the state governors in elected regional governments with military officials. He appointed his chosen successor, Mohamed Tahir Ayala, as Prime Minister and former intelligence chief and current Defence Minister Awad Mohamed Ahmed Ibn Auf as first vice president. His intelligence chief also announced that Bashir would not seek re-election in 2020 and would resign from the head of the National Congress Party.

Sudan’s recent state has been horrendous for its citizens, with protests being carried out by the Sudanese Professionals’ Association and the opposition Umma National Party. They have called for more protests to cause Bashir to step down.

The country has been suffering from inflation due to the devaluation of the Sudanese Pound in October 2018. The devaluation has led to wildly fluctuating exchange rates and a shortage of cash in circulation. Long queues for basic goods such as petrol, bread, as well as cash from ATM machines have become a common sight. Sudan is reported to have around 70% inflation, second only to Venezuela.

In the face of public anger over Sudan’s economic woes, Bashir on Monday announced measures to tackle the foreign currency shortage. The President said no more than $3,000 would be allowed to be carried by any individual travelling outside the country. Bashir also ordered that buying and selling of foreign currency be done only through official channels.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Omar al-Bashir who has been governing the country for the past 30 years hasn’t encountered this magnitude of radicalization before. The declaration of the National Emergency, one that has been instituted after a gap of twenty years, is key to control the rising protests. It is too early to say if the protesting citizens will be able to get the President to step down before the 2020 elections.

Read more:

Image Courtesy: Kremlin.ru, Omar al-Bashir (2017-11-23), CC BY 4.0