May’s failing Brexit campaign
December 9, 2018 | Expert Insights
Theresa May’s latest attempt to forge a compromise with the Pro-Brexit faction of the Conservative Party has failed. The British PM now faces a crucial Parliament vote without the support of the most ardent Brexit supporters.
Background
On June 23rd, 2016, Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union, stunning Europe and the world in general. The EU employs a set of policies for its 28-member states that aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods and trade among other services. Britain is deeply intertwined with the workings of the EU, especially with regard to trade.
Over the past year, leaders of member nations have expressed their dismay over Britain leaving the body. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte are among those who have been vocal about their apprehension regarding the events that are unfolding.
In December 2017, UK Prime Minister Theresa May struck a last-minute deal with the EU regarding key issues. According to this deal, there will be no "hard border" in Ireland. The rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU would also be protected in accordance with the deal. The UK is officially set to leave the EU in March 2019.
Analysis
A government bid to find a compromise to win over rebels, before the Commons Brexit vote, has run into criticism. A Tory backbench amendment - understood to have No 10's backing - offers MPs more of a say over the contentious issue of the Northern Ireland backstop.
DUP leader Arlene Foster dismissed it as "legislative tinkering" while Tory Brexiteers said it was "desperate". Many MPs have expressed concerns about the backstop, aimed at preventing a "hard border" on the island of Ireland.
It would mean Northern Ireland staying aligned to some EU rules, which many MPs say is unacceptable. The UK would also not be able to leave the backstop without EU agreement.
Cabinet ministers are travelling around the UK on Friday as Theresa May continues to seek support for her Brexit deal. The withdrawal deal negotiated between the UK and EU has been endorsed by EU leaders but must also be backed by Parliament if it is to come into force. MPs will decide whether to accept it next Tuesday, but dozens of Tories are expected to reject it, as will the DUP, whose support keeps Mrs. May's government in power.
Downing Street has dismissed reports that the vote could be delayed, although the chairman of Tory backbenchers, Sir Graham Brady has said he would "welcome the vote being deferred" if it meant concerns about the backstop could be addressed.
However, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said that "the best thing for the country" was for MPs to back Mrs. May's deal: "I think we should win the vote, don't pre-judge it....My view is we should continue the debate. We've had three days, there's two days more. I think we should make the argument, make the case and persuade people - that's what you have Parliamentary debate for."
The prime minister has suggested that MPs could be "given a role" in deciding whether to activate the backstop and on Thursday night, a Tory backbench amendment was laid down intended to do that. The amendment - which is understood to have government support - would also give the devolved administrations, particularly the Northern Ireland Assembly, which is currently suspended, more of a say in the process. It would also press the UK and EU to agree on a future trade deal within a year of the implementation period ending.
Assessment
Our assessment is that PM May’s battle to get a Brexit deal with the EU is becoming tougher by the day. We believe that the Parliament will most likely reject PM May’s proposed Brexit deal. We also feel that with public opinions for a second referendum rising, Brexit itself could be reversed.
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