UK government on a slippery slope

The UK government lost key votes in the parliament as the House of Commons gains powers in upcoming Brexit stages.

Theresa May's own party members won a challenge to give lawmakers more power if her deal is voted down in the next session.

Background

On June 23rd, 2016, Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union, stunning Europe and the world in general. The EU employs a set of policies for its 28-member states that aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods and trade among other services. Britain is deeply intertwined with the workings of the EU especially with regard to trade.

Over the past year, leaders of member nations have expressed their dismay over Britain leaving the body. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte are among those who have been vocal about their apprehension regarding the events that are unfolding.

In December 2017, UK Prime Minister Theresa May struck a last-minute deal with the EU regarding key issues. According to this deal, there will be no "hard border" in Ireland. The rights of EU citizens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU would also be protected in accordance with the deal.

The UK is officially set to leave the EU in March 2019.

Analysis

Already under pressure, Prime Minister Theresa May's government lost three votes in the House of Commons, even before the main debate got underway.

May is seeking approval from the house for the exit deal from the EU which her negotiators signed off last week. That vote will be taken next Tuesday.

But this Tuesday began with a setback for her as a European Court of Justice advocate general gave formal advice that revoking the "Article 50" divorce notice was an option for the House without the other27 EU member states having a say. The UK does not need approval of other EU countries to withdraw from Brexit, the advocate ruled.

Then, MPs voted 311 to 293 in favour of holding the UK government "in contempt of parliament" for refusing to release key legal advice on the Withdrawal Agreement and the backstop legal guarantee for avoiding a hard border with Ireland. House Leader Andrea Leadsom said the government would publish "the final and full advice provided by the attorney general to Cabinet.”

A government attempt for a committee to consider the legal question, effectively delaying any decision until after next week's key vote was also defeated.

The House then voted against the government again, as a group of Conservative Party members won a challenge to hand more power to the Commons if May's deal is voted down next week. It means lawmakers can change any motion the government brings to the House of Commons relating to its divorce deal.

There is only a slim chance that PM May will get her deal approved by parliament next Tuesday. Commentators suggest she is at least 50 votes short.

In the event of a loss next week, May would then have 21 days to set out her plan of action in a statement to MPs. That plan could be amended by parliament, giving lawmakers greater power to express their opinions and influence the government's direction. That could reduce the risk of Britain leaving the EU without any deal.  May wants parliament's approval for her deal to keep close ties with the EU after leaving in March 2019.

"We need to deliver a Brexit that respects the decision of the British people," May told parliament. "This argument has gone on long enough. It is corrosive to our politics and life depends on compromise.

Assessment

Our assessment is that PM May’s battle to get a Brexit deal with the EU is becoming tougher by the day. We believe that the Parliament will most likely reject PM May’s proposed Brexit deal. We also feel that with public opinions for a second referendum rising, Brexit itself could be reversed.