What happens now for North Korea?

Days after North Korea conducted a successful test-launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could target United States, the latter is trying hard to understand the real nature of this threat.

Is war imminent or is this a strategy to get the most powerful nations to the negotiating table?

Background

North Korea is one of the most secretive nations in the world. The united Peninsula was occupied by Japan between 1910 and 1945. Towards the end of the World War II, Soviet troops advanced towards Korea to take over from the vanquished Japanese forces. The United States, which by then had begun to distrust the Soviets, requested them to stop their offensive. By 1948, the country was partitioned into North and South Korea. In 1950, North Korea supported by Chinese and Russian forces invaded South Korea. US forces along with the United Nations intervened on behalf of South Korea and the invading army was driven out. Though an armistice was signed in 1953, there has been no peace treaty signed to this day. Currently 28,500 American soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines form part of United States Forces Korea (USFK) in South Korea.

The fates of the two regions diverged in the decades to come. South Korea embraced market economy and became one of the technologically advanced nations in the world. On the other hand, North Korea favoured a totalitarian system that isolated itself from most of the world. It relied heavily on aid from China and Russia.

Analysis

North Korea’s nuclear program has been a source for disquiet to the international community. Even though it had signed the Non Proliferation Treaty in 1985, it nevertheless has been developing nuclear capabilities for decades. In the 1950s, Soviets started training North Korean scientists to jumpstart their nuclear program. Despite having signed the NPT, North Korea had not allowed any inspections of its nuclear facilities. In 1989, US intelligence got information about a nuclear complex in the region. Given regime’s secretive nature, it has become harder for the outside world to discern the capabilities of North Korean nuclear program. Between 2006 and 2016, five nuclear tests have been carried out much to the consternation of the US.

On July 2017, North Korea conducted a successful test-launch of an ICBM, which caused ripples. According to experts, it is capable of reaching Alaska in America. The North Korean state-sponsored media also went as far as to note that North Korea’s Supreme Leader, Kim Jong Un said that this test was a “package of gifts” for Americans on their Independence Day.

The US government has been swift in condemning the tests and hours later conducted its own joint missile military exercise along with South Korea. In addition, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, said that the country will take military action against North Korea. America has also called on China and Russia to do more to neutralize the threat. However, any military conflict would also jeopardize South Korea and hence, it seems likely that US’ hands are tied.

Assessment

Our assessment is that as we had predicted earlier, the actions of North Korea could possibly to bring back US back to the negotiating table. It would definitely want to deal through US than through China. They would be in a better position to extract more economic concessions that their country is in real need of. The US had a food aid program to North Korea in 2012 but it was stopped when North Korea broke the conditions of its deal. However, with the threat of North Korea looming greater than ever, the US might have no choice but to seek diplomatic solution.