US spy chiefs contradict Trump

U.S. intelligence agencies told Congress that the North is unlikely to entirely dismantle its nuclear arsenal and casting a shadow of doubt on President Donald Trump’s goal of a nuclear-disarmed North Korea. 

Background 

The relationship between the US and North Korea has always been fractious. During the war between North and South Korea in 1950, US forces successfully intervened on behalf of South Korea. The North Korean nuclear program has been a source of concern for the US and the international community for decades. North Korea has remained an isolated nation and its nuclear program has especially been a concern for the international community. In 2017, North Korea has launched 23 missiles in the course of 16 tests. In November 2017, North Korea after seemingly two months of silence, tested its most potent missile yet. The Hwasong-15 missile reached an unprecedented height of almost 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles). The Hwasong-15 is a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile. This represents a serious escalation in the stability of the Korean peninsula.

Trump has taken an aggressive stance while countering North Korea. In 2017, he said that North Korea “will be met with fire and the fury like the world has never seen.” North Korea responded by announcing that plans were underway for it to strike Guam, a US territory. Both Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump were locked in an extended war of words in 2017, with both threatening wars.

2018 was breakthrough year in US-North Korean relations as it saw President Trump and Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un meeting at Singapore for the first time. In January 2019, the White House and US President Donald Trump confirmed that the second summit between the President and Kim Jong Un would be held in February 2019.

Analysis 

Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, in testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, noted that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has expressed support for ridding the Korean Peninsula of nuclear weapons and has not recently test-fired a nuclear-capable missile or conducted a nuclear test.

“Having said that, we currently assess that North Korea will seek to retain its WMD (weapons of mass destruction) capabilities and is unlikely to completely give up its nuclear weapons and production capability because its leaders ultimately view nuclear weapons as critical to regime survival,” Coats said in an opening statement.

This skepticism about North Korea is consistent with the intelligence agencies’ views over many years and runs counter to Trump’s assertion after his 2018 Singapore summit with Kim that North Korea no longer poses a nuclear threat. Plans for a follow-up summit are in the works but no agenda, venue or date have been announced. In the meantime, U.S. intelligence agencies are observing “activity that is inconsistent with full denuclearization,” Coats said, without giving details.

The report also said the Islamic State group “remains a terrorist and insurgent threat” inside Iraq, where the government faces “an increasingly disenchanted public.”

In Syria, where Trump has ordered a full withdrawal of U.S. troops, the government of Bashar Assad is likely to consolidate control, with Russia and Iran attempting to further entrench themselves in Syria, the report said. Asked for her assessment, CIA director Gina Haspel said of IS: “They’re still dangerous,” adding that they still command “thousands of fighters in Iraq and Syria.”

Coats told the committee that Russia and perhaps other countries are likely to attempt to use social media and other means to influence the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The report specifically warned about Russia, which U.S. intelligence agencies determined had interfered in the 2016 election to sway voters toward Trump.

The intelligence assessment, which is provided annually to Congress, made no mention of a crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border, which Trump has asserted as the basis for his demand that Congress finance a border wall. The report predicted additional U.S.-bound migration from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, with migrants preferring to travel in caravans in hopes of a safer journey.

Assessment 

Our assessment is that North Korea and the US will agree to another meeting but neither party will cede their basic demands. The US is unlikely to lift sanctions before North Korea denuclearizes, whereas North Korea is unwilling to denuclearize before the sanctions are lifted. We feel that the US’s spy agencies contradicting claims made by Trump is a sign of weak inter-departmental coordination in the administration.