US to discontinue aid to Pakistan?

The United States government has announced that it will be reviewing its financial support to Pakistan. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that the financial aid provided to Pakistan will be one of the many aspects that will be scrutinized by the US during an inter-agency review that has been initiated to examine the larger US policy towards Pakistan.

The announcement comes just days before Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, will leave on his fifth visit to United States.

Historic overview of US-Pakistan ties

While the US has always strived to be on friendly terms with both India and Pakistan, Washington has long considered Islamabad to be a more valuable ally. During the Cold War, Pakistan became a key friend to the US in South Asia. Pakistan's new Prime Minister, Huseyn Suhravardie in 1956 even gave the United States the permission to lease the Peshawar Air Station (PAS) to be used for intelligence gathering of Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles. India, on the other hand, maintained a stoic distance from both the US and the Cold War as it became an important member of the Non-Alignment Movement.

However, the relationship between Pakistan and the United States has been tested through the decades. One of the reasons for the relationship to have soured at times is in part due to Pakistan’s growing friendship with Russia and China. In fact in 2013, Pakistan and China announced a series of projects to improve the infrastructure of Pakistan called the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is valued at $62 billion. Another vital reason the relationship has dipped is due to the fact US has repeatedly out Pakistan’s reported involvement with various terrorist activities.

The burgeoning friendship between the United States and India has also soured the comfortable equation between the US and Islamabad.

One of the lowest periods in the Pakistan-US relationship was in 2011. In May of that year, US forces conducted a raid in Pakistan to kill the architect of 9/11, Osama Bin Laden who had been hiding in that country. The Pakistani government was only notified of the raid after it had been conducted.

Afghanistan, a deciding factor

Because of its geopolitical advantage, both China and the US have strived to maintain a friendly equation with Pakistan. America has been sending a significant amount in foreign aid to Pakistan in order to help it fight the Taliban forces in the region. The then president Barack Obama sought $3.1 billion in aid to Pakistan in order to help the country take on Al Qaeda for 2010. According to a report in the New York Times, a total of $30 billion in assistance has been given to Pakistan since 2002.

During the recent Congressional hearing, Tillerson touched upon this “complex” relationship with the Pakistani government noting that the stability of Afghanistan was at play as well as the stability of the Indo-Pacific region. Hence, the government could not take any decision on whether funding would be discontinued until policy review was conducted.

Assessment

While lawmakers in US have repeatedly questioned the financial aid provided by the United States to Pakistan, it is also highly unlikely to be discontinued in the near future. It is possible that the US government has timed the announcement of the review to coincide with Modi’s arrival to the US. After all, one of the main agendas that has been set for the upcoming dialogue between Modi and Trump, is to discuss plans to counter terrorism and the relationship shared between Pakistan and Afghanistan.