US to add Venezuela to list of state sponsor of terrorism
November 21, 2018 | Expert Insights
The Trump administration is preparing to add Venezuela to the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism in what would be a dramatic escalation against the socialist government of Nicolás Maduro.
Background
The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is located in northwest South America. In 2017, the UN estimated that the country is home to over 31 million people. The country stretches across over 900,000 square kilometres. It is bordered by the Caribbean Sea in the north, and Columbia, Guyana, and Brazil in the west, east, and south respectively. Venezuela was colonised by Spain in 1522 and became the first Spanish territory to declare independence from the empire in 1811.
Despite having the world’s largest oil deposits, many Venezuelans live in abject poverty. The former President Hugo Chavez, was in office from 1999 to 2013, during which time billions of dollars were spent on generous social programs. However, since his successor Nicolas Maduro took office, there has been a rise in inflation and a shortage of basic goods. A drop in oil price has added to the administration’s problems.
The UN says 1.6 million Venezuelans since 2015 have fled the economic meltdown in the country, which has been hit by shortages of basic necessities such as food and medicine.
Analysis
Republican lawmakers led by Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) have pushed for the designation, citing Venezuela’s alleged ties to Lebanese Hezbollah, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, and other groups. The list is reserved for governments accused of repeatedly providing “support for acts of international terrorism” and includes only Iran, North Korea, Sudan and Syria.
Republicans have long accused Venezuela of having ties to terrorist organizations. But experts have played down the threat and strength of those connections. They warn that a designation that does not offer concrete evidence could weaken the legitimacy of the U.S. list, which critics say is already applied inconsistently.
U.S. officials declined to say whether a final decision had been made about the designation, but in recent days the State Department has asked for feedback on the proposed move from various agencies, including the Department of Health and Human Services, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which is part of HHS, and the U.S. Agency for International Development. A State Department spokeswoman declined to comment on the pending decision, calling inquiries about the deliberations a “hypothetical question.”
The Trump administration has imposed sanctions on a number of people in Maduro’s inner circle, accusing the first lady, the defence minister, the vice president and other allies of helping the socialist leader “plunder” the nation’s wealth.
Officials have long said that further measures are under consideration, including an embargo on Venezuelan oil. Despite sharply falling oil exports in recent years, Venezuela is the fourth-largest foreign supplier to the United States, which remains the largest purchaser of Venezuelan crude.
The move could limit U.S. assistance to Venezuela and prohibit financial transactions as the country reels from hyperinflation and extreme food and medicine shortages that have sent millions fleeing to neighbouring countries. Many Venezuelans blame Maduro for rampant corruption across the government and for the mishandling of the economy.
Deliberations on the potential U.S. move continued last week when HHS officials were asked to assess the impact of a terrorist designation on “HHS or CDC programming of funding being carried out by a third party in that country,” according to emails sent among HHS officials.
Counterpoint
Experts are divided on the wisdom of designating Venezuela a state sponsor of terrorism, with some saying it could provide helpful pressure against the increasingly authoritarian Maduro regime, and others expressing concerns that it could play into Maduro’s anti-U. S. messaging or be used as a pretext for a U.S. military intervention.
Assessment
Our assessment is that Venezuela is close to becoming a failed state in Latin America. Millions of its people are starving and millions more are struggling to access basic resources like medical supplies. We believe that any stern action from the Trump administration may push Venezuela to the brink of a major crisis. We also feel that Washington maybe looking to squeeze Venezuela to the point of no return in exchange for economic reforms and bail out packages.
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