Turkey to launch new offensive

Turkey will launch a new military operation against U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters in Syria “within a few days,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said.

This move is likely to further strain ties between NATO allies Turkey and the United States.

Background

The Syrian Civil War has been going on since 2011. It began during the Arab Spring protests and due to resentment towards the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The war is being fought by several factions: the Syrian government and its allies, a loose alliance of Sunni Arab rebel groups (including the Free Syrian Army), the majority-Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Salafi jihadist groups (including al-Nusra Front) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), with a number of countries in the region and beyond being either directly involved, or rendering support to one or another faction.

Until 2011, Turkey had a relatively friendly relationship with Syria. Once the civil unrest broke out, the Turkish government condemned the Syrian president Bashar Assad over the violent crackdown on protests in 2011. Turkey for many years has raised concerns about YPG. This is a mainly-Kurdish militia force in Syria and the primary component of the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria's Syrian Democratic Forces. Some have called it the "most effective" force in fighting ISIL in Syria.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to crush the YPG "very quickly". The nation believes that the group has links to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a banned militant group. It has also stated that this militia is a danger for its security.

Analysis

In recent months, Turkey has shelled Kurdish positions across the border in Syria, east of the Euphrates River, and has threatened to drive out the Syrian Kurdish militia known as the People’s Protection Units, or YPG.

The YPG is the main component of a Kurdish-led militia in Syria that rolled back the Islamic State group with the help of the U.S.-led coalition. Ankara views YPG fighters as terrorists because of their links to the Kurdish insurgency inside Turkey. U.S. troops are deployed with the Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, in part to prevent clashes with Turkey.

“We will begin our operation to rescue the east of the Euphrates from the separatist organization within a few days,” Erdogan said. “Our target is not the American soldiers, it is the terror organizations that are active in the region.” He called on the U.S. not to allow “deep” disagreements over Syria policy to impede future cooperation between the two countries.

Turkey has been incensed by American support for the Kurdish-led forces. More recently, it has been frustrated by delays in the implementation of an agreement that was reached between Washington and Ankara that would effectively push the Kurdish militia out of the key northern Syrian town of Manbij, west of the Euphrates. “They are not being honest, they are still not removing terrorists (from Manbij),” Erdogan said. “Therefore, we will do it.”

Erdogan’s statement, given at a defence industry meeting, follows U.S. moves to set up observation posts in northern Syria, despite Turkey’s objections. Turkey says the observation posts are aimed at protecting the YPG. “We know that the aim of the radar and observation posts set up by the United States (east of the Euphrates) is not to protect our country from terrorists, but to protect the terrorists from Turkey,” Erdogan said.

Turkey sent a convoy of troops and military equipment to the border with Syria as reinforcements, according to state-run Anadolu Agency. Turkish troops have already driven back Syrian Kurdish forces in two cross-border operations west of the Euphrates, in 2016 and earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war-monitoring group, said at least four people were killed in two explosions in Syrian towns held by Turkey-backed local administrations shortly after Erdogan’s announcement.

A motorcycle exploded near a mosque in the town of al-Bab, killing three people. The second explosion occurred in the town Azaz, where one child was killed, the Observatory said. There were other, smaller explosions in al-Rai and Dabiq, it said. No one was reported killed in those blasts.

Assessment

Our assessment is that this development threatens to broaden the scale of conflict taking place within Syria. It is already one of the most embattled regions in the world. This also complicates the relationship between the US and Turkey. The two nations are members of the NATO alliance and with this development, one NATO member is trying to take down a group which is trained and armed by another.