Trump may avoid second shut down

President Donald Trump is eyeing a path to avoid another government shutdown where he would reluctantly accept the congressional border-security deal and attempt to tap other funds for his wall.

Background 

A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass, or the President fails to sign appropriations legislation funding federal government operations and agencies. Since 1976, when the current budget and appropriations process was enacted, there have been twenty gaps in budget funding, eight of which led to federal employees being furloughed.

The most recent shutdown started on 22 December 2018 and lasted for 35 days after the Democrats refused to include funds for President Trump’s border in the continuing resolution to pay for the operations of the Federal Government.

Analysis 

Trump is likely to grudgingly sign the legislation and then immediately use his executive authority to fund additional border measures, said a person who talked to the president and asked not to be identified to discuss private conversations.

“I don’t want to see a shutdown. A shutdown would be a terrible thing,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. But he wouldn’t commit to signing the legislation, saying he would wait until the White House reviews the final version. “We’ll be looking for landmines because you could have that, you know,” Trump added. “We’ll take a very serious look at it.”

Trump’s team has concerns on some provisions that may be included in the legislation based on briefings they have received, said a White House official who spoke on condition of anonymity. The official declined to comment on what specific provisions may be problematic.

Lawmakers are continuing to haggle over the final details of the legislation — which is expected to be released late Wednesday or Thursday — while their leaders began lobbying for votes. Partisan fighting over the bill text resulted in delays that mean the House is likely to vote on the 14th of February. “We are in good shape,” said House Appropriations Chairwoman Nita Lowey, a New York Democrat.

Trump suggested in a tweet that after getting briefed by the lead Republican negotiator, Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, that he could get what he wanted for border wall money elsewhere in the federal budget.

“Was just presented the concept and parameters of the Border Security Deal by hard working Senator Richard Shelby. Looking over all aspects knowing that this will be hooked up with lots of money from other sources….” Trump wrote.

The president’s campaign for a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border is entering a new phase, after his quest to get $5.7 billion in the agreement to keep the government operating fell far short. The tentative accord that was arrived at provides just $1.375 billion for 55 new miles of fencing in Texas.

Negotiations on the final legislation were being drawn out by haggling over details. Republicans want to put an extension to the Violence Against Women Act in the spending bill while Democrats are seeking a full reauthorization, according to a Democratic aide familiar with the talks. Democrats are also pushing to include back pay for contractors affected by the last government shutdown and running into objections from the GOP.

Border fencing provisions were still also being debated. Lawmakers left it up to staff to resolve a Democratic push to exclude the National Butterfly Center, a SpaceX launchpad and other areas in Texas from fence construction. Rep. Henry Cuellar, a Texas Democrat, said the dispute had been resolved and that he’s been told barriers won’t be allowed in those areas.

The legislation would have to pass both chambers of Congress and get the president’s signature before midnight on 15 February 2019 to keep the government open.

Assessment

Our assessment is that a second government shutdown within two months will be a significant blot on President Trump’s business-friendly legislative agenda. We believe that President Trump will sign the legislation and keep the government open despite not getting enough funds for his border wall. We also feel that the President may look to raise the remaining amount requested for the wall from external sources.