Theresa May and Sheikh Hasina

Synergia Foundation organised a round-table discussion with Professor James Mayall, Emeritus Professor of International Relations at Cambridge University, who shared the stage with Krishnan Srinivasan, a former Foreign Secretary to the Government of India. The theme of the conference was “TWO FEMALE PRIME MINISTERS FACE CHALLENGES: THERESA MAY AND BREXIT & SHEIKH HASINA AND BANGLADESH ELECTIONS.”

Background

Synergia Foundation’s round-table discussion with Krishnan Srinivasan, a former Foreign Secretary to the Government of India, and Professor James Mayall, Emeritus Professor of International Relations at Cambridge University, was held on 14 November. The theme of the conference was “TWO FEMALE PRIME MINISTERS FACE CHALLENGES: THERESA MAY AND BREXIT & SHEIKH HASINA AND BANGLADESH ELECTIONS”.

The event was attended by experts who shared their insights on the various challenges faced by democratic institutions all over the world. The objective of the roundtable was to understand the challenges faced by the Prime Ministers of the two countries - one a neighbour to India and the other a country that has a significant diaspora and considered a second home by many Indians, in the context of the forthcoming elections in Bangladesh and in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum.

The discussion brought to fore key issues concerning the 11th parliamentary election likely to be held on 30 December in Bangladesh, as well as the challenges faced by British Prime Minister Theresa May as she leads Britain’s exit from the European Union.

Brexit is approaching its final stages, though the separation of UK from the EU is still unclear. It seems certain that whatever the outcome, Prime Minister May will have problems in winning the support of the parliament, which may lead to a leadership challenge and new elections.

Analysis 

Krishnan Srinivasan opened by pointing out that no other country was as integrated with India as Bangladesh, making the outcome of the elections of vital interest and importance to India.  India shares more with Bangladesh than any other third world nation.

Mr. Srinivasan spoke of the significant inroads that have been made in foreign relations in the past 10, and especially in the past 5 years. In spite of closer ties between the two nations, the existence of what Srinivasan calls “litmus tests” for the two countries continue. One is the dispute over the 309 km long Teesta River flowing through the Indian states of West Bengal and Sikkim through Bangladesh. If this were resolved, another dispute would arise, possibly over the Tipaimukh Dam in Manipur. The answer to this, he feels, are joint conversations with India and Bangladesh along with Nepal, Bhutan and China, using the PPIL.

Another potential problem is a rise in militancy on the Bangladeshi border, which many believe to be actively supported by Pakistan. He expressed his worry that a Bangladeshi government that is cordial with Pakistan could make such a problem much worse.

The Bangladesh National Party, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s rivals, are known to have an anti-India stance. In spite of the problems with Hasina’s government, Srinivasan feels that India will hope for a third term for the incumbent Prime Minister.

Brexit is approaching its final stages, though the separation of UK from the EU is still unclear. It seems certain that whatever the outcome, Prime Minister May will have problems in winning the support of the parliament, which may lead to a leadership challenge and new elections. Brexit will affect not only Europe but all countries in terms of trade, investments and immigration policies.

Professor Mayall’s anecdote laced speech opened with him expressing his belief that referenda, by their sheer divisiveness and toxic and unhealthy impact on politics, are a way of having a civil war without the bloodshed. This effect is significantly worse when those going into a referendum have no knowledge of how to control the agenda and timing.

He provided some historical context by touching upon the referendum that took Britain into the EU, to begin with:  the EEC membership referendum took place on 5 June 1975 in the United Kingdom to gauge support for the country's continued membership of the European Communities, under the Conservative government of Edward Heath.

He believes that the 2016 election went so differently because such an enormously complex issue was reduced to popular politics. It was an outcome that substantiated his belief that rule by referenda is one of the worst aspects of representative democracy. According to Mayall it is, at present, impossible to gauge the outcome for the rest of the world.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the views of two speakers on opposite ends of the political spectrum resulted in the emergence of highly nuanced viewpoints at the roundtable. On the Bangladesh issue, we agree with Mr. Srinivasan that dialogue and closer cooperation with our neighbours are an urgent need. We also agree with Mr. Mayall’s assessment that the ideal outcome for Britain would be a Brexit deal that allows the country to remain a part of the customs union.