Thai military junta plays kingmaker

Current Thai election laws help skew the outcome of the March 24, 2019 elections likely consolidating Prayut Chan-ocha’s position as Prime Minister.

Background

The Kingdom of Thailand is a Southeast Asian country comprised of 76 provinces. With a population of over 68 million, Thailand is a constitutional monarchy although, in recent years, it has been governed by a military junta. On May 22, 2014, a coup d’état saw the abolishment of the 2007 constitution, replaced by the rule of a military organization called the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), which instituted a new constitution in 2016.

The coup came on the heels of a political crisis over former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s proposed amnesty by his sister and then PM, Yingluck Shinawatra. The chief of the NCPO abolished the national assembly and the body accepted responsibility for the legislative branch. Claiming to seek stability, the NCPO has since cracked down on its critics, imposed a new constitution and election laws, ruling longer than it has promised. The leader of the NCPO is Prayut Chan-ocha, a general of the Royal Thai Army.

Since the 2000s, two parties dominated Thai politics; the Pheu Thai Party and the Democrat Party. The Pheu Thai Party, founded by former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, derives its base from the country’s rural population. The Democrat Party, Thailand’s oldest party, finds its base in urban centres and among royalists. General elections are scheduled to be held on March 24, 2019. Voting will take place under a military-backed charter, ending one of the longest periods of rule by a military junta in Thailand’s modern history.

Analysis

In a Facebook post, Sudat Keyuraphan, chief of the Pheu Thai Party’s election strategy warned that the election rules for the March 24 elections were written so that NCPO leader Prayut Chan-ocha “will become the next prime minister.” The statement comes after remarks made by Mr. Chan-ocha’s top lieutenant, Prawit Wongsuwan, which held that his leader was likely to form the next government. The upper house, Mr. Wongsuwan said, was “controllable,” because the NCPO is in charge of appointing the 250 senators that comprise Thailand’s unelected upper-house. Current laws permit the upper-house, the Senate, to dismiss a government. In addition, the Senate, when convened, begins a 5-year term, compared to the 4-year term of the lower house, meaning that the Senate is likely to play kingmaker in the next elections as well.

In the fray for the March 24 elections is the Palan Pracharath Party, a pro-military party, fielding NCPO leader Prayut Chan-ocha as its Prime Ministerial candidate. If Mrs. Keyuraphan’s fears are justified and the March 24 elections are inconsequential, it is likely that Mr. Chan-ocha’s party gains primacy in Thai politics. If the Palan Pracharath Party wins 126 parliament seats of the 500 available, in conjunction with the 250 seats of the Senate, a joint session of the upper and lower houses is likely to yield Mr. Chan-ocha as PM.

Aware of the repercussions of the current constitution, Abhisit Vejjajiva, head of the Democratic Party said that if he were to become PM, he would seek constitutional changes. The changes would be aimed at undoing undemocratic laws embedded in the constitution by the military junta. Mr. Vejjajiva’s party has consistently criticized the 2016 constitution, with some party members calling for a complete revamp. However, the Democratic Party as a royalist party, shares some of the viewpoints of the military, leading it to uneasy alliances in the past in order to form a government. The Democratic Party, therefore, is more likely to join forces with the Palan Pracharath Party in order to secure power.

Despite their differences, most parties in Thailand are unified in their demand to see the military junta removed from power. Before the elections, rhetoric has been consistent in calling for Mr. Chan-ocha’s dislodging from Prime Minister-ship. The most likely scenario is a “junta-backed and Senate-supported coalition government, most likely under Prayut, with most parties included, except the anti-junta groups.” This is likely to mean that the Pheu Thai Party, despite its popularity, will be Thailand’s next opposition party, while the Democratic Party joins forces with the Palan Pracharath Party.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Thailand’s current election laws help secure the position of de-facto leader Mr. Chan-ocha. We believe that while most parties contesting in the March 24 elections will join a coalition government with Mr. Chan-ocha, anti-junta parties like the Pheu Thai Party are likely to become the opposition. We believe that the March 24 elections lose some of its legitimacy given the skew in instituted law favouring the existing military junta.