Tehran designing “modern” uranium fuel

Iran is “on the verge” of producing fuel made up of highly enriched uranium, Iran’s top nuclear power official said. While it hasn’t reached a weapons-grade level, the new fuel might still cross the threshold set by the 2015 nuclear deal.

Background

In 2015, Iran agreed to a long-term deal on its nuclear programme with the P5+1 group of world powers - the US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany. It came after years of tension over Iran's alleged efforts to develop a nuclear weapon. Under the accord, Iran agreed to limit its sensitive nuclear activities and allow international inspectors in the country, in return for the lifting of crippling economic sanctions.

President Trump has been openly critical of the agreed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), colloquially known as the ‘Iran deal’ and withdrew the US from the agreement in May 2018. In effect, sanctions were re-imposed on Iran by early August 2018, with both sides not willing to return to the negotiation table.

On August 16th, 2018 the US Department of State created the ‘Iran Action Group’ which is tasked with “changing the behaviour of the regime”.

Analysis

The Islamic Republic of Iran can now create new types of nuclear fuel on its own and no longer needs to rely on reverse-engineering of foreign technologies. Initial steps have been taken to create modern 20 per cent [enriched uranium] fuel and we are on the verge [of producing it],” the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization (AEOI), Ali Akbar Salehi said.

The new product would be “different” from the 20 per cent enriched uranium fuel, which had previously been produced in Iran and could be used to “supply fuel to any reactor similar to the Tehran Research Reactor,” Salehi said. He also pointed to significant advances in reactor development, saying that “designing a reactor has now become a very possible task for the Iranian experts.”

Twenty-percent enrichment is at the lower scale of the boundary set for what is known as highly enriched uranium. While this level is still far lower than the one used in nuclear weapons – where it exceeds 90 per cent – such fuel is still considered dangerous as it can be potentially be used as nuclear explosive material.

The announcement made by the Iranian officials might prove to be quite controversial, in light of the requirements set out by the 2015 agreement reached by Iran and the six world powers on the Iranian nuclear program, which is also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JPCOA). The accord repeatedly and explicitly states that Iran must “keep its level of uranium enrichment at up to 3.67 percent for 15 years.”

Iran is, however, allowed to produce nuclear fuel under strict conditions that need to be approved by a working group set up by the signatories to the deal. Those conditions include ensuring that the fuel cannot be converted to uranium hexafluoride, the feedstock for centrifuges that enrich uranium. The international community has not yet reacted to the statements. They might yet add fuel to the fire in the bitter feud between Tehran and Washington and further escalate tensions around the nuclear deal.

In May 2018, US President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear accord, in a move that was condemned by all other parties to the agreement, which include the UK, France, Germany, Russia, China, and the EU, together with Iran. Following its withdrawal, Washington reinstated all anti-Iranian penalties that had been in force before the agreement, and vowed also to reduce imports of Iranian oil “to zero.”

Meanwhile, other parties to the deal actively sought to keep it in place. The EU is working on a so-called special purpose vehicle (SPV) to facilitate financial transactions between the bloc and Iran while bypassing the US sanctions. In December, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, announced that this system will be ready in the near future.

Iran has so far stood defiant in the face of the US pressure. The Islamic Republic’s leadership blasted the US sanctions as unprovoked and illegal under international law and promised to retaliate. At the same time, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that the restrictions failed to harm the nation’s economy but only enabled it to “flourish,” while calling the US establishment “first-class idiots.”

Assessment

Our assessment is that Iran is using innovative methods to circumvent the US sanctions. We believe that Iran’s decision to develop indigenous nuclear fuel rods reaching 20 per cent triggered the need for the JCPOA. We feel that Iran needs to comply with the Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement if it wants to harness nuclear power for civilian purposes.