Sudan Part 2: Regional and Global Influences

Oil rich Sudan, blessed with the mighty Nile flowing through its heart, has been historically a major player in the regional geopolitics of North-eastern Africa. Since the days of the Mahdi Revolt in 1881, when the Islamic Mahdi’s comprehensively defeated the British and ruled for the next 18 years till British Rule was re-established after a brutal military campaign in which the British Indian Army played a pivotal role, this country was a lynchpin.

Even today, Sudan is bordered by countries that are themselves unstable and in a state of perpetual internal conflict- Ethiopia, Chad, the Central African Republic, Libya, and South Sudan.

What is most worrying is that with tribal affinities and rivalries spilling over loosely policed borders spread over vast empty deserts, the conflict could easily destabilise the entire North-eastern Africa.

Background

Last year, the civil war that was triggered between the Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as the generals jockeyed for power and influence, the resultant human disaster has been what Anette Hoffmann, author of a report on the food emergency in Sudan by the Netherlands-based Clingendael think tank, calls “the world’s largest hunger crisis.” This rhetoric, which dismisses conflict zones as lost causes, has restricted the international community's response and perpetuated harmful myths. The treatment of Sudan as a deserted nation of no hope allows international entities to absolve themselves of blame or attachment to the conflict.

The conflict began with the dissolution of the Transitional Sovereign Council in October 2021, and tensions between the SAF and RSF escalated over a proposed plan to dissolve the RSF and integrate it into the army. The RSF has entrenched its position in Khartoum, laying a siege on SAF headquarters and forcing Gen Burhan of the SAF to relocate to Port Sudan. In Darfur, the RSF has captured four of five capital cities and controlled parts of North and West Kordofan.

The conflict has led to at least 9,000 deaths (many more would have gone unreported in the absence of neutral observers in the conflict zone) and 5.4 million forced displacements. The UN reported that nearly 20 million people need food assistance.

The conflict has also affected other parts of the country, including South Kordofan, and has led to widespread bureaucratic impediments hampering the scaling up of humanitarian assistance. Refugees have been streaming into Ethiopia, Chad, the Central African Republic, Libya, and South Sudan, which are themselves stressed due to political unrest or internal rebellions.

In a sad reflection of the UN's efficacy in stopping conflicts, the UNSC has failed to implement concrete steps to address the rapidly deteriorating situation. To their credit, the United States and Saudi Arabia have initiated a process in Jeddah to facilitate ceasefires and humanitarian access, but little progress seems to have been made.

Both the SAF and the RSF have their external supporters, like the Syrian Arab Forces and the Islamic State of Iraq, supplying heavy weaponry. While the SAF has slowly and steadily forced the RSF out of capital Khartoum into the outlying areas like Omdurman and South Khartoum, the RSF has been gaining control of the resource-rich Darfur region. International efforts to stop the war in Sudan have been criticised for being inadequate, and foreign meddling, particularly from the United Arab Emirates, is further prolonging the conflict and hindering the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions.

Analysis

Sudan's strategic location and interactions with regional powers expose it to external pressures and proxy conflicts.

The ongoing crisis is influenced by regional and global actors' struggles for sovereignty and interests, as well as Sudan's internal dynamics. China's intentions to intervene in Sudan are important, but previous attempts have been inconclusive due to its preference for peacekeeping and economic engagement.

Russia has prioritised its interests in Africa, particularly in Sudan, without involvement with international organisations. Its activities aim to restore Soviet-era influence through arms sales, joint military exercises, and private military companies like the Wagner Group training the Sudanese army. Russia also seeks to minimise U.S. and French influence in Africa and obtain valuable metals like gold from Sudan. Russia secured warm water ports in a deal with al-Bashir, but Sudan's current military leaders have put it on hold after Bashir's departure. Western diplomats accuse Russia’s Wagner Group of illicit gold mining and disinformation, but Wagner has denied any role in the recent fighting.

Sudan is crucial to U.S. interests in Africa and the Middle East, as it connects Africa and the Middle East and is involved in China's Belt and Road Initiative.

Israel aims to expand bilateral relations with Sudan, normalise relations with other Arab countries, and increase geostrategic interests in the Red Sea and East Africa. Under the Israel–Sudan normalisation agreement of October 23, 2020, both had agreed to recognise each other and establish diplomatic relations formally. However, power struggles between al-Burhan of SAF and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo of the RSF have hindered these efforts. Internal conflict in Sudan also prevents Israel from forming a strategic security corridor.

Despite international pressure, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have influenced Sudan's foreign policy, severing ties with Iran and establishing close relationships with Dagalo. Saudi Arabia values the Red Sea and Sudan's presence on it to protect investments and strengthen its regional role. UAE aims to eliminate remnants of the Sudanese regime and is the world's leading recipient of Sudanese gold. Türkiye, not a neighbour, has also been taking initiatives to stabilise the situation and enhance its regional presence.