Sturgeon calls for Scottish Referendum 2.0

Scotland should hold a new referendum on independence from the United Kingdom by 2021 if Britain leaves the European Union, said the Scottish leader, Nicola Sturgeon. The question remains, is Scotland ready to separate from the UK and apply for EU membership?

Background

Scottish Independence is the movement for the country to become a sovereign state independent from the United Kingdom. In 2014, a national referendum was held in Scotland. Scots voted against independence, of which about 54% to 46% in the referendum billed as a once-in-a-generation poll.

Leading figures supportive of Scottish independence have suggested that following the UK vote to leave the EU while Scotland voted to remain in the EU, a second Scottish independence referendum should be precipitated. During the Brexit vote of 23 June 2016, 62% of Scottish voters voted to remain (38% of voters voted to leave the EU). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon said that she was looking at all options to "secure our place in the EU" and that a second referendum was "highly likely".

The British government has played down the possibility of a second Scottish Referendum, with PM May emphasising the lack of mandate for a second vote on Scottish independence.

Analysis

In 2016, the United Kingdom as a whole voted to leave the European Union, but people in Scotland voted strongly to remain.

Ms. Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister and the leader of the pro-independence Scottish National Party, has argued that Brexit changes the situation because Scotland should not be dragged out of the 28-member European Union against its will. She told the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh that if Britain leaves the European Union, “a choice between Brexit and a future for Scotland as an independent European nation should be offered in the lifetime of this Parliament” — before the next scheduled Scottish election, in May 2021.

Ms. Sturgeon said that the Scottish government would introduce legislation setting the framework for a new referendum. Holding such a vote, however, would need approval from the British government, which says the time is not right.

The British government’s secretary of state for Scotland, David Mundell, said Ms. Sturgeon “continues to press for divisive constitutional change when it is clear that most people in Scotland do not want another independence referendum.” Ms. Sturgeon acknowledged the opposition from the Conservative government in London, but said, “I believe that position will prove to be unsustainable. If we are successful in further growing the support and the demand for independence". She added, “then no U.K. government will be able to stop the will of the people.”

Brexit, which had been scheduled to take place last month, has been delayed as Prime Minister Theresa May’s government has struggled to win Parliament’s backing for its European Union divorce agreement.

The bloc has given Britain until Oct. 31 to ratify an agreement or leave the European Union without a deal, risking severe damage to the British economy.

Counterpoint

Ms. Sturgeon’s demand for a second referendum is in direct contradiction to her pledge not to ask for another vote on Scottish Independence until there was a UK-wide Brexit deal in place. She had also said the Scottish people should vote again on whether to break away from the UK “when the [Brexit] deal is done when we know the relationship, not just the divorce deal, but the relationship between the UK and the EU moving forward."

Assessment

Our assessment is that if there is another Scottish Independence referendum that is finalised before Brexit, Prime Minister Theresa May will lose any arbitrage she has with the EU over border disputes with Ireland. We feel that Ms. Sturgeon has waited for the original deadline for Brexit to pass in order to justify her demand for the Scottish referendum. We believe that the British economy is going to be the biggest loser regardless of whether May achieves a soft Brexit or not.