Russian Roulette

The United States, Russia and Jordan reached a ceasefire and "de-escalation agreement" for southwestern Syria on Friday, as the US government under President Donald Trump made its first attempt at peace-making in the country's six-year-old civil war. The ceasefire was announced on Sunday, after a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit of major economies in the German city of Hamburg.

Similar ceasefires

Previous similar ceasefires have failed to hold for long and it was not clear how much the actual combatants Assad's government and the main Syrian rebel forces in the southwest are committed to this latest effort.

Former US President Barack Obama struggled to find a strategy to end Syria's civil war, which killed nearly half a million people, turned cities into ruins and forced millions to flee abroad.

The ceasefires

In recent weeks, U.S. forces have shot down a Syrian aircraft that got too close to American forces, as well as Iranian-made drones. Government offensive against Western-backed rebels and Islamic militants in the contested province of Daraa also is sparking tensions. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighters have shifted south to join the fight.

Israel has also struck Syrian military installations on several occasions in the past few weeks after shells landed in the Israeli-controlled side of the Golan Heights. Ahead of the deal, media reports in Israel have suggested unease at any arrangement that relies on Russia policing areas near its frontier.

Analysis

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the area covered by the ceasefire affects Jordan’s security and is a "very complicated part of the Syrian battlefield."

Russia and Iran are the main international backers of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad while Washington supports some of the rebel groups fighting to topple him.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the accord includes "securing humanitarian access and setting up contacts between the opposition in the region and a monitoring centre that is being established in Jordan's capital."

The ceasefire should pave the way towards a more robust reconciliation effort. Despite the ceasefire deal, Tillerson said the United States still sees "no long-term role for the Assad family or the Assad regime. And we have made this clear to everyone. We certainly made it clear in our discussions with Russia."

Assessment

As we predicted earlier, our assessment is that Mr. Putin is more interested in resolving the conflict in Syria and reduce the possibility of American troops having to go back. Mr. Trump is aware that Russia and Iran has levers that can address the larger threat of ISIS.