Russia warns US of ditching treaty

Senior Russia officials have warned the US about exiting  from the arms control treaty INF, which will put nuclear nonproliferation at risk leading to chaos. 

Background 

The INF (Intermediate – Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty was signed by US and USSR in 1987. It was signed by then President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to help protect the security of the US and its allies in Europe and the Far East. It bars the United States and Russia from possessing, producing or test flying a ground launched cruise missile with a range of 300 miles to 3400 miles except sea launched weapons. 

According to the provisions, the US was obliged to destroy Pershing I and II launcher systems and BGM-109G Gryphon ground-launched cruise missiles. Moscow, meanwhile, pledged to remove the SS-20 and several other types of missiles from its nuclear arsenal. By 1991, nearly 2,700 missiles had been destroyed. Both countries were allowed to inspect the other’s installations. 

In 2007, Russian president Vladimir Putin declared the treaty no longer served Russia's interests. The move came after the US withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002. 

Analysis 

Trump’s announcement that the United States would leave the Intermediate – Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty brought sharp criticism from Russian officials and from former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, who signed the treaty in 1987 with President Ronald Reagan. 

Russian officials warned of 'full chaos' if Trump pulls out of nuclear arms treaty. It could collapse the entire nuclear non-proliferation system and bring nuclear war even closer. According to senior law maker Konstantn Kosachev, by ending the INF, Washington risks creating a domino effect which could endanger other important deals like the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and collapse the existing non-proliferation mechanism. 

President Trump announced the withdrawal from the treaty, stating that Russia had violated terms of the treaty that prohibit the U.S. and Russia from possessing, producing or test-flying ground-launched nuclear cruise missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (300 to 3,400 miles). Russia has repeatedly denied allegations that it has produced and tested such a missile pointing out that Trump has failed to produce any evidence of violations.  Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in February that the country would only consider using nuclear weapons in response to an attack involving nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, or in response to a non-nuclear assault that endangered the survival of the Russian nation. 

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that US leaving the treaty "would be a very dangerous step. It would "cause the most serious condemnation from all members of the international community who are committed to security and stability." Gorbachev who co-signed the treaty noted that Trump’s plan to quit the treaty is a mistake. He added that Washington’s desire to turn back politics cannot be supported by Russia and those who cherish a world without nuclear weapons.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said that Trump’s announcement raised difficult questions for Europe and also noted that Russia hasn’t cleared the allegations of violating the treaty. British Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson said the U.K. stands "absolutely resolute" with Washington on the issue and called on the Kremlin to "get its house in order," 

Former US Ambassador to Ukraine wrote in his post that "Once the United States withdraws from the treaty, there is no reason for Russia to even pretend it is observing the limits. Moscow will be free to deploy the 9M729 cruise missile, and an intermediate-range ballistic missile if it wants, without any restraint." 

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton faces two days of high-tension talks in Moscow after President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the nuclear weapons treaty. 

Assessment 

Our assessment is that the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty will allow it to pursue a policy that would seek unilateral military superiority. We feel that Trump’s decision also factors in that the INF is a bilateral treaty between Washington and Moscow. China was free to develop and deploy intermediate range nuclear missiles. We feel that some in the Trump administration felt that the IF treaty put them at a growing disadvantage in developing their strategic rivalry with Beijing.