Russia offered nuclear plant to North Korea

Moscow has secretly offered North Korea a nuclear power plant in exchange for dismantling its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Russia’s offer came as negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang deadlocked over North’s disclosure of nuclear inventory. 

Background

Moscow shares a relatively equal relationship with North Korea and South Korea. While the United States, Japan and China maintain closer ties with one or the other side of demilitarized zone (DMZ), Russia has maintained steady economic and political relations with both sides. 

On many occasions, Russia has condemned North Korea’s nuclear programme and has publicly proclaimed that it is a threat to security in  North East Asia. It has also joined the sanctions against North Korea, introduced by the UN Security Council. Time and again, Russia has also been accused of violating these sanctions to aid North Korea. After North Korea’s 2017, ballistic missile tests, Russia has consistently argued that its strategy of maintaining favourable relations with both North and South Korea is more likely to peacefully resolve the Korean crisis than Washington’s aggressive posturing toward North Korea. 

Analysis

Russian officials have made a secret proposal to North Korea aimed at resolving deadlocked negotiations with the Trump administration over its nuclear weapons program, said US Inteligence officials familiar with the discussions. In exchange for dismantling its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, Moscow offered the country a nuclear power plant.

The Russian offer, which intelligence officials became aware of in late 2018, marks a new attempt by Moscow to intervene in the nuclear talks. Its latest bid is expected to unsettle Chinese and US officials who are wary of granting Moscow an economic foothold on the Korean Peninsula. It has been viewed as a power play by Moscow to elevate its role in the regional peace negotiations.

As a part of the deal, the Russian government would operate the plant and transfer all by-products and waste back to Russia, reducing the risk that North Korea uses the power plant to build nuclear weapons while providing the impoverished country a new energy source. Russian officials have asked that Pyongyang provide a realistic timeline for when it could denuclearise. The CIA has assessed that the Russian power plant would produce a very limited amount of weaponizable by-products.

"The Russians are very opportunistic when it comes to North Korea, and this is not the first time they've pursued an energy stake in Korea," said Victor Cha, a former White House staff member who the Trump administration considered nominating last year to serve as US ambassador to South Korea. "Previous administrations have not welcomed these Russian overtures, but with Trump, you never know because he doesn't adhere to traditional thinking," Cha said.

The  idea is borrowed from the original blueprint of the failed 1994 accord between North Korea and the Clinton administration known as the Agreed Framework, which sought to accommodate North Korea's energy needs. "It was technically possible for the US to provide light water reactors to North Korea under the Agreed Framework because Pyongyang agreed to remain a party of the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and receive safeguards from the International Atomic Energy Agency," said Duyeon Kim, a Korea expert at the Centre for a New American Security. She noted that the proposal proved controversial as discussions transitioned from the Clinton administration to that of George W. Bush. "The Clinton administration was willing to allow them to have a nuclear energy program, but the Bush administration, including John Bolton, was adamantly opposed to light water reactors," she added.

A new U.S. intelligence assessment of global threats concluded that North Korea is “unlikely to completely give up its nuclear weapons and production capabilities.” The intelligence community has long had a more pessimistic outlook than the White House and the State Department on the nuclear talks.

Talks  between the United States and North Korea have gained new momentum with the announcement of a second summit between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un planned for late February. "With North Korea, we have a very good dialogue," Trump said. "I'm going to not go any further than that. I'm just going to say it's very special."

Counterpoint

Russian Ambassador to North Korea, Alexander Matsegora said Moscow has never made a proposal to North Korea’s authorities on building a nuclear power plant in exchange for Pyongyang’s dismantling nuclear weapons. "Russia or as they claim representatives of Russian authorities have never put forward a proposal on building a nuclear power plant in North Korea," the ambassador stressed. He said that a nuclear power plant costs billion dollars and North Korea cannot afford the cost of fuel, utilization of spent elements plus maintenance costs in the current economic situation. 

Assessment

Our assessment is that Russia and the United States are in pursuit of  establishing a multipolar global order. It is likely that Russia wants to strengthen its relation with North Korea because of its perceived hostility towards Washington. Both Russia and North Korea are locked in a common struggle against US policies. It can also be noted that US hardliners are increasingly targeting Russian  interference due to the alleged collusion between Trump and Russia.