Rouhani: Iran facing dire crisis

Iranian leader vows to ‘endure’ crisis blamed on US, says 2015 nuclear accord was ‘highest political pride in recent centuries’. 

Background 

The United States and Iran do not have any formal diplomatic relations or ties. The two nations share an acrimonious relationship. In 1953, the CIA played a key role in orchestrating a coup against Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadeq. Between 1979 and 1981, a group of Iranian students belonging to the Muslim Student Followers of the Imam's Line took over the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. The 44 hostages there were released after 444 days. In 2002, US President, George W. Bush, described Iran as being part of the “axis of evil.”

On 2 April 2015, the P5+1 and Iran reached a provisional agreement that sought to lift most of the sanctions in exchange for limits on Iran's nuclear programs extending for at least ten years. When the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) certified that Iran had restricted its sensitive nuclear activities, the UN sanctions were lifted on January 16, 2016.

In May 2018, US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and re-imposed economic sanctions on Tehran. President Trump has been openly critical about the Iran deal and has sought to dissuade other members of the JCPOA to withdraw as well. A fresh set of US sanctions came into effect in November 2018.

Analysis 

Iran currently is confronting “the greatest pressure and economic sanctions of the past 40 years,” the Islamic Republic’s President Hassan Rouhani said Wednesday, addressing crippling sanctions renewed by Washington last year.

In comments published on his official website, Rouhani stressed that “our problems are mainly due to pressure by the US and its followers, and the government and the Islamic system should not be blamed.” He vowed that the nation would “endure” outside strong-arming efforts. “The US administration will definitely fail in its latest move against the Iranian nation,” he said. “Nobody can harm us as long as we follow the Supreme Leader.”

Rouhani spoke at a ceremony honouring the Islamic Republic’s first supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, as the country prepares to mark 40 years since the February 1979 Islamic revolution.

In May of last year US President Donald Trump decided to abandon the 2015 nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions on Tehran. The move touched off a record drop in Iran’s currency, prompted an exodus of foreign firms, plunged the nation into a recession and renewed its economic isolation.

Trump called the accord “the worst deal ever” and said it had given the US nothing. The administration bashed the agreement for its sunset clauses that allow certain restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program to expire, its failure to prevent Iranian ballistic missile testing and its continued support of regional terror groups.

Rouhani said “Iran’s highest political pride in [recent] decades and centuries was Iran’s powerful talks with the six major powers, and the victories that were handed over to Iran in various areas in the talks. It will never be lost.” He asserted that the international community was on Tehran’s side, saying “the entire world is condemning the US conspiracies against the Iranian nation and support Iran in this regard.”

The European Union has condemned Washington’s renewal of sanctions and is working on a legal entity through which businesses could trade with Iran and avoid US sanctions. However, there have been some indications that European powers are also gravitating toward the US position. Iran’s recent work on launching satellites into space has faced criticism from the West as a possible effort to advance its missile program, since the rockets used in the two programs depend on very similar technology.

Assessment 

Our assessment is that Tehran will not seek out new negotiations with Washington unless it removes the sanctions. It is evident that this new deal will focus on imposing harsher terms on Tehran without giving any concessions, unlike what the JCPOA did. We feel that Iran will rely more on deepening  it’s economic engagement with countries like China, Russia and the EU to soften  the impact of the  sanctions which have significantly affected the Iranian economy.