Right Before the EU Elections

Portugal, long touted as politically “sensible”, has swung right, adding to the trend of right-wing forces gaining momentum in Europe. The recent election saw the right-populist Chega (meaning “enough”) party quadruple its parliament seats. From 12 seats 2 years ago, it now has 40 seats. 

Additionally, the centre-right alliance (AD alliance) led by the Social Democratic Party swept the most seats while the ruling Socialist government’s vote share dwindled. 

Background

Led by Andre Ventura, a former football commentator, Chega posits itself as anti-establishment. Ventura criticizes systemic corruption, blaming the social democratic and socialist governments that have dominated Portuguese politics since the military dictatorship ended 50 years back. He gained popularity advocating against the minority Romas in the country and was endorsed by Brazil’s far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro.

On the other hand, the Social Democrat-led AD alliance emphasized economic reform; Portugal’s economy grapples with low wages and a housing crisis. The party plans to cut income tax, make home-buying more affordable, and address the “drain” of qualified young people, in addition to cutting corporate tax.

The Socialist Party’s defeat ended its 8-year rule, which was recently marred by a corruption scandal. While it had steered the nation through COVID-19, it struggled to meet post-pandemic challenges like spiralling prices combined with low wages, high housing prices, and lack of healthcare access. 

Analysis

Chega is now a pragmatic option for the centre-right coalition looking to form a government. Joining hands with it would offer it a clear majority. However, the AD leader has so far ruled out the controversial party, pointing to its extreme views, often racist and xenophobic, and its tough stance on immigration. 

However, the ballot barometer reading cannot be denied: Chega now enjoys a sizable political influence in Portugal. Moreover, the general shift is evident: from a majority Socialist government, the parliament is now predominantly right-centre. 

This brings Portugal on to a growing bandwagon of European countries including the Netherlands, France and Germany, where right-wing and populist groups have made headway. It comes just 3 months ahead of the important European Union (EU) elections, widely considered to reflect political trends in the continent.

Some analysts attribute Chega’s rise from irrelevance to prominence to the people’s need for a change; 2 parties have dominated Portugal’s politics since it broke out of the military dictatorship decades back. Chega has marketed itself as a break from both of them.

Yet, if the AD refuses to join hands with Chega, it is heading for a minority government. This comes with significant drawbacks. Most minority governments in Portugal’s political history have not lasted through their term. An AD-led minority government may have to make major compromises to win other parties’ approval, making deals left and right to get laws through. In other words, the Social-Democrat-led AD alliance may compromise on stability if it forms a minority government.