Prince of youth

Saudi Arabia's King Salman has promoted his son, Mohammed bin Salman, as the Crown Prince. Through a royal decree he removed the former Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the 57-year-old nephew of the king, as next-in-line to the throne and replaced him with Mohammed bin Salman, 31, who was previously the deputy crown prince. The newly announced crown prince was also named deputy prime minister and maintained his post as defence.

The crown prince

Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud is the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, First Deputy Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia and the youngest Minister of Defense in the world. Prince Mohammed is also the chief of the House of Saud royal court, and the chairman of the Council for Economic and Development Affairs. He has been described as the power behind the throne of his father, King Salman.

Why is this significant?

Saudi Arabia has typically been ruled by kings in their 70s or 80s. Prince Mohammed bin Salman's rapid ascent is seen by the younger generation as a sign that things are changing.

Before his latest promotion, he was responsible for leading Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen, overseeing the kingdom's energy policy and economic reform.

Analysis

The prince, embarked on major overseas visits, including a trip to the White House to meet President Donald Trump in March. That visit to Washington helped lay the foundation for Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia in May, which marked the president's first overseas visit. It is rumoured that his supposed close ties with Trump administration, particularly with the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, facilitated his latest promotion. Kushner, facilitated the prince’s meeting with Donald Trump in March of this year. It is believed that this interaction was founded on Saudi promises of major defence contracts.

He overhauled the kingdom's economy away from its reliance on oil. He also was the force behind the Saudi-led war in Yemen, as the defence minister. The war, launched more than two years ago, has failed to dislodge Iranian-allied rebels known as Houthis from the capital, Sanaa, and has had devastating effects on the impoverished country.

Saudi forces have killed scores of civilians and there have been appeals made to the United States, as well to UK and France, to halt the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that could be used in the Yemen war.  

Mohammed bin Salman framed the tensions with Iran in sectarian terms and said it is Iran's goal "to control the Islamic world" and to spread its Shia doctrine. He also vowed to take "the battle" to Iran. Iran and Saudi Arabia's rivalry has played out in proxy wars across the region. They back opposite sides in the wars in Syria and Yemen and they support political rivals in Lebanon, Bahrain and Iraq.

Prince Mohammed. Iran and Turkey, major Shia and Sunni countries in the region, have rushed to Qatar’s aid and have ensured that the island nation does not suffer the full consequences of the Saudi-initiated sanctions. The Saudi-led “Sunni” alliance is now a new cross-sectarian grouping that also has close ties with Russia. This group, working together on the peace process in Syria, will try to ensure that Saudi plans for regime change in Damascus, in which the new crown prince has invested so much of his country’s prestige and resources, are stymied.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Trump’s anti-Iran and pro-Israel stance, the absence of moderating counsel in both Washington and Riyadh suggest that war clouds in the region will become darker. Trump being in favour of Saudi Arabia could destabilise the Middle East horribly.

The appointment "means a lot of things for the future of the kingdom - and all point to uncertainty brought about by the erratic Mohammed".

 “Noting that Iran’s ultimate aim was to wrest control of Islam’s holiest site in Mecca, we won’t wait for the battle to be in Saudi Arabia… Instead, we will work so that the battle is for them in Iran, not in Saudi Arabia.”- Mohammed bin Salman