Opening a New Front?

In the modern era, the major fear has been escalation in all conflicts between great powers or their proxies. And that is exactly what is developing along the periphery of the war in Ukraine, with smaller players getting inexorably sucked into the geopolitical whirlpool.

And where nuclear weapons are a real factor, as in the case of Russia versus NATO, the escalatory ladders assume nightmarish proportions. Robust conflict resolution/de-escalation processes exist when advanced nations are involved, including hotlines, but who can rule out miscalculation?

Since the beginning of this year, Poland, a frontline NATO member and Belarus, Russia’s only ally, have been drawing ever closer to a dangerous clash of arms. Poland has been progressively increasing its troop deployment along its Belarus border, accusing Minsk of airspace violations.

The situation took a turn for the worst when Belarusian strongman, Alexander Lukashenko, diffused the Wagner crisis by allowing mutinous members of Wanger Group fighters to seek sanctuary in Belarus. Poland accuses Belarus of concentrating Wagner fighters near the Suwalki Gap, a thin strip of land between Poland and Lithuania, another NATO member, in the guise of refugees to increase pressure on NATO.

Background

The area of contention between Poland and Belarus, the Suwalki Gap, is an approximately 60-mile-long corridor linking the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad to Belarus and the only overland connection between the Baltic states and the rest of the EU. Naturally, it is of critical importance to all parties- NATO, the EU, Russia and Belarus.

As per CNN reports, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has accused Belarus of allowing Wagner mercenaries to move towards the Suwalki corridor via Grodno, a city in Western Belarus. The picture remains murky, with no clear proof about the size and scope of the so-called Wagner intrusion.

Tensions between Warsaw and Minsk have been steadily rising since the beginning of this year when Poland closed a key border crossing in Bobrowniki in February, followed by closing the Kukuryki -Kozlowicze border crossing to all Belarusian cargo traffic. Minsk retaliated in kind. Concurrently, both sides have been building fortifications and increasing troop deployments along the border. A very volatile situation is emerging with the Wagner Group in the picture.

Since 2021, Minsk and Warsaw have been trading accusations with Poland blaming Belarus for luring illegal migrants and forcing them into Poland to destabilise the NATO country.

Analysis

While Russia has scrupulously avoided dragging NATO into the conflict by keeping its forces away from its frontline NATO members like Poland and Lithuania, the chances of spillover remain great. Poland has protested the inadvertent landing of Russian missiles on its territory and the intentional bursting of the Kakhovka Dam by either of the two sides. Despite the seriousness of all these provocations, the subsequent tensions they created eventually died down.

But there was another area where the war was expanding significantly. This was the role of Ukraine’s northern neighbour Belarus in this conflict. Belarus is an absolute dictatorship. It has been ruled for decades by Alexander Lukashenko. In 2020 his rule was threatened by popular protests. At this juncture, Russian President Vladimir Putin came to his aid. For this, he was indebted to Putin. In the meantime, Russia signed a number of military accords with Belarus. At the beginning of the Ukraine War, Russia invaded Ukraine from the north through Belarusian territory. Later, Russian nuclear weapons were stationed in Belarus. Despite all this, Belarus was still not a direct participant in this war. Then the failed Wagner rebellion took place in Russia. President Lukashenko apparently brokered a deal to end this impasse. In return, he was rewarded with the disbanded Wagner fighters along with their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin who took part in this coup attempt. Prigozhin has supposedly returned to Russia under amnesty and is keeping a low profile. On the other hand, Lukashenko is now playing his Wagner trump card.

With its long duration and the huge devastation that the Russia-Ukraine war has caused, some untoward incident leading to a domino effect is very likely. The variables in this conflict are too large.

Lukashenko is also an embattled dictator. He has even less flexibility in options than the Russian President. His is a small country. It does not have the extensive population or natural resources of Russia. Yet it is being pressured in equal measure by the West for regime change.

In such a situation, President Lukashenko has decided to align himself with the unpredictable mercenaries of the Wagner Group. The Wagner Group has proved its battlefield value in different parts of the world, from Ukraine to Syria to sub-Saharan African countries. Lukashenko recognises this quite clearly. Right from the moment Russia invaded Ukraine, there has been pressure on him to get involved directly. But he has walked a diplomatic tightrope and avoided this question. Getting directly involved in the war through its own armed forces would be a disaster for the Belarusian regime. The general population is already at a high level of unrest. They have openly declared their support for Ukraine.

This basic advantage that the Wagner Group provides to the Belarusian dictator is deniability. Belarus can take part in this war without fighting. This will reassure Russia that Belarus will continue to remain by its side. At the same time, Belarus can gain a few strategic advantages of its own.

The presence of Wagner forces in Belarus fulfils a number of objectives for President Putin. They are close enough to be monitored but far enough not to pose a threat. In this, Putin is following the maxim that keep your friends close but your enemies closer.

Wagner is also training Belarusian forces. The Russian armed forces cannot do this right now. They remain too engaged in Ukraine. Yet the northern defence in Belarus must be buffered up. Wagner provides a cheap option for Russia here.

Questions remain about the size of Wagner's presence in Russia. Are they large enough to act independently and make a decisive difference? Also, will the Belarusian government be able to control them if things get out of hand? They easily challenged Vladimir Putin despite all the safety measures he had taken. Lukashenko is much more vulnerable in this regard.

The Wagner foothold in Belarus is a concern for Poland and the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which are also members of NATO. According to the Polish ambassador to the US, Marek Magierowski, "Poland is the only EU country which borders Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. it is almost 800 miles combined. You can only imagine how volatile the entire region is nowadays". These countries were formerly part of the Soviet Union, like Ukraine. They have been consistently supporting Ukraine since the beginning of this war. Moscow’s wrath is directed against them. And they are vulnerable. On Lithuania’s southern border and Poland’s northern border is present the Suwalki Gap. This is a strategic chokepoint.

This tiny strip of land is significant for two reasons. It connects Belarus with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Since the start of the war, this vulnerable exclave has suffered. The state-owned railway company of Lithuania, the LTG, has decided to hit Russia where it hurts most. It has barred the transport of Russian goods to Kaliningrad. In this, it has followed the EU sanctions list. Under this list are included advanced technology, metals, construction materials and coal. Lithuania has also banned Russian overflights to Kaliningrad over its territory. This has been a big blow to Russia. Moscow has not taken this lying down.

The same weapon that Lithuania has used against Russia could come back to bite it along with its Baltic neighbours Estonia and Latvia. The Suwalki Gap is the only land connection between the Baltic states, Poland, and the wider NATO countries. If this chokepoint is closed off by Belarus through the irregular Wagner forces, then the Baltic states would be completely cut off by land from their allies and partners. Then the only way to supply them would be by water. This will seriously limit the operability of NATO forces to stand by the side of the Baltic states. It will be a lot like the Berlin Crisis when West Berlin was cut off from NATO by a Soviet blockade. The stakes were high then for one-half of a city. This time around, it will be a number of countries.

At the end of the day, all this is mere speculation. These are the worst-case scenarios. The likelihood of any of this actually happening remains debatable. Russia is currently bogged down in Ukraine. It cannot afford to open a second front on the Belarus-NATO border. So, basically, it is just testing the waters. The Polish government is also hyping up the threat from the East. It has elections ahead where it has got to substantiate its security credentials.

Through all this, NATO has already moved a large number of its troops to the Polish border. Hence, in a way, Putin has achieved his objective. He has successfully diverted NATO’s attention from Ukraine a little bit. He does not want an all-out war with NATO which could go nuclear. His numerous brinkmanship posturing has proved this since February 2022. Mr Putin, despite his threats, is a realist. As a result, the chess pieces in this war will continue to be moved in different permutations and combinations by both sides till a resolution is reached.