Nothing More Than a Hot Balloon-really?

Both Beijing and Washington have put forward different versions of the same story.

According to the Chinese, this was just a weather balloon collecting meteorological data, which inadvertently slipped into U.S. airspace under the influence of westerly winds. The Americans claim that there was nothing innocent about the balloon, which had no business loitering across the sensitive North American airspace for days, silently monitoring and recording data. The debris, if recovered from the ocean, may indicate the true nature of the balloon.

Background

Chinese espionage in the United States is nothing new and has been going on for many years. For Beijing spying on the United States has always been a question of catching up on areas where it is lagging. Chinese spying efforts have largely been focused on industrial espionage, where Chinese expatriates have played a major role in extracting high-value technology from their places of work in the U.S. Also, Chinese companies investing in the U.S. have been leveraged, luring American citizens to pass sensitive information willingly or unwittingly. Chinese academia has been especially active, and research institutes in China, flush with funds, have attracted foreign academics, scientists and researchers in droves with attractive salary packages and research grants. All these activities were conducted under the garb of technical and educational exchanges, which could slip under U.S. counterintelligence shields. However, a rash of restrictions recently imposed by the U.S. has suddenly made any interaction with China, academic or otherwise, a no-go area.

Traditionally, the Chinese have been careful in calibrating their espionage efforts in the U.S. to avoid attracting Washington's wrath, which could lead to a dangerous escalation when diplomatic relations are already at a nadir.

This makes the 'spy balloon' even more inexplicable. The fact that its track showed that it had penetrated the U.S. airspace for a considerable time and distance, the incident has repercussions for the much-vaunted high-tech American surveillance of its airspace.

Analysis

The question remains what the exact purpose of this balloon was, and which side to believe.

Balloons might seem a little anachronistic in the age of satellites and drones. The chances of their detection are very high. However, they remain relevant as they can spot many things on the ground which might be undetectable to higher-level surveillance equipment. Furthermore, their silent presence and slow trajectory would enable extended monitoring of an area of interest, especially if they are equipped to upload data in real-time to waiting satellites in low earth orbit.

So, there is obviously a cost-benefit analysis for the Chinese in using a balloon as an espionage device in the United States. This is especially the case now, with tensions between the United States and China already at an all-time high.

The U.S. maintains that this was all a well-planned incident; categorising the balloon as a weather balloon was only a ruse. Previous cases of Chinese spying can justifiably give ammunition to the American point of view.

Suppose it was a weather balloon which had drifted into the U.S. In that case, the Chinese should have immediately issued an official alert as such a large object could pose a potential danger to commercial aviation if it drifted down to lower altitudes. Allowing the balloon to traverse a vast swathe of U.S. and Canadian airspace, including sensitive sites like the three nuclear missile silo fields at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, make Chinese claims appear suspicious.

That this incident has exacerbated the sentiment that China is increasingly testing American patience was clearly visible in the debates raging in the influential right-wing media. This could interfere with the ‘wait and watch’ approach adopted by the Biden administration towards the Chinese not to unnecessarily escalate tensions. The fact that the balloon had been detected days before it was shot down indicates that Washington was weighing its options before ordering up a jet to intercept the intruder. When the delayed action was criticised, the Department of Defence claimed they were waiting for the balloon to reach the coast so that its debris would not fall upon inhabited areas.

However, calling the balloon a direct threat to American security would be an exaggeration. For one, the altitude it maintained when it was finally shot down was around 60,000 feet which is way above the ceiling of most commercial airlines. Similar Chinese balloons have been reported drifting over other parts of the world even as the controversy in the U.S. raged on. In some incidents, the Chinese have formally apologised to the nations whose airspace was intruded by the balloon; why they did not afford the same courtesy to the U.S. is unfathomable!