New Zealand: a Change of Guard

On October 14, 2023, New Zealanders voted in a new coalition government led by the National Party (NP) and its preferred coalition partner, the ACT Party. The new Prime Minister, Mr Christopher Luxon, is a former airline executive who has promised to focus on the domestic economy and security.

Background

Mr Luxon's ascent to power marked a notable departure from the progressive policies of his predecessor, Jacinda Ardern. Analysts predict that things will change once the National Party, under the leadership of Christopher Luxon, assumes control. That NP enjoys a great deal of public support was evident from the 40 per cent of the votes polled in its favour compared to the 27 per cent received by the incumbent Labour Party, led by Chris Hipkins. With the National Party clinching 50 parliamentary seats and Labour securing 34, this outcome granted the National Party a clear majority government.

Several key factors underpinned Luxon's triumph. One pivotal element was the state of the economy. New Zealand has been grappling with economic challenges in recent years, and naturally, the incumbency factor would influence the mind of the voters. Mr Luxon's campaign was built upon the promise of revitalizing the economy, a message that resonated with many voters.

Another significant factor was rising crime rates. Concerns regarding public safety had mounted as crime continued to escalate in New Zealand.

The departure of Jacinda Ardern, the popular and down to earth former Prime Minister, who announced her resignation in June 2023, opened the door to a change in government. Many voters were seeking a new leader to usher in a fresh era, and clearly, her successor Mr Chris Hipkins, was not up to the task. Mr Luxon effectively positioned himself as the harbinger of this transition.

Analysis

Mr Luxon's ascent to power marked a notable departure from the progressive policies of his predecessor, Jacinda Ardern. Luxon and his coalition government are expected to take a more conservative approach to foreign policy than the previous Labour government. Luxon has pledged to strengthen New Zealand's ties with its traditional allies, such as the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom, and to take a more hawkish stance on China.

Dealing with China could be the most apparent difference between Luxon and Ardern governments. During Ardern's tenure, her government sought to maintain a close relationship with China while expressing concerns about its human rights record and military presence in the Pacific. In contrast, Luxon's government is taking a more critical and assertive approach, promising a "robust" stance towards China. This shift is indicative of New Zealand's evolving diplomatic relations with a global powerhouse.

Luxon's government intends to strengthen New Zealand's ties with traditional allies such as the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom. This strategic approach represents a change from Ardern's policies, which, while maintaining close relations with the U.S., were often critical of certain U.S. decisions, such as withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. Luxon's emphasis on traditional alliances could lead to a more assertive role for New Zealand in the Indo-Pacific region, especially in response to China's expanding influence. This in turn could translate into increased defence spending and closer military collaboration with the U.S. and Australia. This was evident in New Zealand’s office response to the Gaza crisis. When the world was shocked by the surprise Hamas attack on Israel, Mr Luxon’s government was quick to condemn “unequivocally the terror attacks led by Hamas on Israel." However, as the Israeli retaliation grew in intensity and scope, Mr Hipkins toned down his stance, calling for "rapid and unimpeded humanitarian access to enable the delivery of crucial life-saving assistance.”

Ardern's government, on the other hand, maintained a focus on regional security but without the same level of assertiveness.

In addition to nurturing traditional alliances, Luxon's government emphasises trade and economic diplomacy. Luxon's vision of making New Zealand a "more outward-looking" country includes expanding trade ties with new and emerging partners like India and Latin America. While Ardern also prioritised economic diplomacy, Luxon's approach is marked by its focus on promoting economic growth and exploring new markets, potentially reshaping New Zealand's trade dynamics.

Luxon and Ardern also have differing priorities and approaches on the domestic front. Luxon, a conservative politician, has pledged to reduce taxes, cut government spending, and promote economic growth. His approach leans toward pro-business policies, including reducing regulatory barriers. Ardern's tenure focused on economic equality, with measures such as increasing the minimum wage and promoting affordable housing, education, and childcare.

Luxon's approach to healthcare centres on enhancing the efficiency of the public healthcare system and supporting the private healthcare sector. Ardern's policies emphasized improving access to affordable healthcare, reducing surgical wait times, expanding mental health services, and supporting individuals with disabilities.

Luxon intends to improve the quality of education in New Zealand and supports parental choice. In contrast, Ardern focused on increasing access to education, reducing class sizes, improving teacher training, and providing support for disadvantaged students.

Luxon's policy approach prioritises reducing crime and improving public safety, with support for law enforcement agencies. Ardern's policies aimed to reduce crime, address root causes, and reintegrate offenders into society.