Japan to ink peace treaty with Russia over Kuril Islands

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has confirmed that Moscow and Tokyo will solve their territorial dispute and sign a peace treaty based on the 1956 Joint Declaration over the Kuril Islands dispute. Accordingly, Russia will hand over southern parts of Kuril Island to Japan.

Background

The Kuril Islands dispute is a disagreement between Japan and Russia and also some individuals of the Ainu people over sovereignty of the South Kuril Islands, which stretch between northern Hokkaido and southern Kamchatka, in the Sea of Okhotsk. The disputed islands are under Russian administration as the South Kuril District of the Sakhalin Oblast. They are claimed by Japan, which refers to them as its Northern Territories or Southern Chishima, and considers them part of the Nemuro Subprefecture of Hokkaido Prefecture.

The San Francisco Peace Treaty signed between the Allies and Japan in 1951, states that Japan must give up "all right, title and claim to the Kuril Islands" but it also does not recognise the Soviet Union's sovereignty over them. Japan claims that at least some of the disputed islands are not a part of the Kuril Islands, and thus are not covered by the treaty. Russia maintains that the Soviet Union's sovereignty over the islands was recognized in post-war agreements. Japan and the Soviet Union ended their formal state of war with the Soviet–Japanese Joint Declaration of 1956 but did not resolve the territorial dispute.

Analysis

The Russian and Japanese leaders confirmed this latest stance on Kuril Island at their January 22 meeting in the Kremlin. Moscow and Tokyo solved their territorial dispute and are willing to sign a peace treaty based on the 1956 Joint Declaration, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said at the opening of the parliament session.

According to the Joint Declaration, Russia will hand over to Tokyo some islands of the southern part of the Kuril Islands. The Joint Declaration had promised that the USSR would give Japan the Habomai islet group, Shikotan and keep the remaining islands.

"As for Russia, our nations will deepen mutual trust and friendship, solve their territorial problem and sign a peace treaty," Abe said. "Together with Putin we share the determination to put an end to this issue, which has been in place for more than 70 years after the war, without leaving it for the future generations."

The disputed group of four islands, Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and Habomai, is currently governed by Russia, which insisted that the territories were transferred to the Soviet Union after the end of the war and have been an integral part of the country ever since. Japan has actively discussed the prospect of regaining sovereignty over the southernmost part of the archipelago, which includes Shikotan Island and Habomai. 

The Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly stated that the Russian sovereignty over those islands is fixed in international legal documents and cannot be questioned. Over three-quarters of Russians have said they oppose handing a chain of Pacific islands to Japan. Putin said any peace treaty "should be acceptable to the people of Russia and Japan and supported by the public at large in both countries."

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed in November to accelerate negotiations over the peace treaty at a meeting in Singapore in November. In December, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the leaders announced establishing a new peace treaty negotiations format. The two countries’ top diplomats were tasked to oversee its work.

Mr. Putin said “it's hard to make a decision” without understanding the limits of American military deployments to Japan, highlighting the Kremlin's fear of US troops appearing on the Kurils. PM Abe promised that there would be no US bases in Japan in the event of the handover of the two islands.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Japan was backing the sanctions on Russia by the US. It is likely that Japan is intimidated by the increasing Chinese influence in East Asia and has turned to Russia. We feel that signing the peace treaty is likely to improve Russia – Japan relations. At the same time, it is also a change of strategic interests of Japan, with regards to the US.