Impasse in West Asia

Qatar has condemned Saudi Arabia and its allies for refusing to negotiate terms and conditions to restore air, sea and land links in the region.

It has been little over three weeks since 9 countries including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt cut off all diplomatic ties with Qatar. The countries accused Qatar of funding terrorist organizations – a charge that Qatar has denied.

With the crisis showing no signs of ending, countries like Russia and the United States have stepped in to call for a resolve.

Background

Tensions have always existed between Qatar and its Gulf neighbours. The region in the past has supported the Muslim Brotherhood; a group that Israel has deemed a threat. Also, the fact that it seemingly has maintained good relations with Iran has been a thorn with Saudi Arabia. In April 2017, began developing the world’s largest natural gas field that it owns along with Iran. By doing so, it lifted a self-imposed ban that lasted 12 years. The friendly equation with Iran has also put Qatar in a tough spot with America as well because it is considered one of the US’ top allies in the region. The country even hosts the largest American base in the Middle East.

The event that triggered the current crisis took place in May 2017 when Qatari news agency along with a number of its official websites was reportedly hacked. While hacked, there were articles that were uploaded in which Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani seemingly spoke warmly of Iran and even expressed support for Hezbollah and Israel. The government immediately came forward and said that it had no hand in what had occurred. But the damage kept piling. Days later, Al Jazeera, a news media organization funded by Qatar, reported on the leaked emails of ambassador of the United Arab Emirates, Yousef Al Otaiba. These reports were seen as “embarrassing.”

Analysis

From June 5 and June 6, a number of countries including Yemen, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, all announced that they were severing diplomatic ties with Qatar. And since Saudi Arabia closed its borders to Yemen, the airspace was also restricted and the sea links as well. All GCC countries ordered their citizens to leave Qatar and as the problem escalated, the international community called for a quick resolution.

However, that has not happened.

Most recently, Saudi Arabia along with its allies has provided Qatar with a list of demands. It has also said that these demands were not negotiable.

The United States government has urged Saudi Arabia to come up with demands that are actionable. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said, “We hope the list of demands will soon be presented to Qatar and will be reasonable and actionable.” The Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in the US, Senator Bob Corker has said that the US could force reconciliation by halting arms sales to the region. In a letter to Tillerson, he wrote that this impasse in the region would only further affect the ongoing fight against ISIS.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the ongoing impasse in the regions can have dangerous consequences. If this problem is not solved, the Middle East will become a theatre to another World War. Most of the conflicts in the last century were caused by accidents and it is not unforeseeable in the skirmish that is taking place there that either a US aircraft is shot down by the Russians or vice versa. Conflicts are resolved when countries are able to put a positive spin in the negotiation; whereas the narrative now only seems to focus on the negatives. We urge extreme caution.