Hong Kong’s future – the Red Line

Carrie Lam, who has been sworn in as Hong Kong’s new Chief Executive, is the first woman to hold the position.  She was sworn on as the region marks its 20^th anniversary since it came under Chinese rule.

Her ascent to power comes against a backdrop of China exerting more control over the territory which has fiercely guarded its autonomy.

Background

Hong Kong is an autonomous territory which holds a separate political and economic system from China. Under the principal – One Country, Two Systems – Hong Kong exercises its own independent executive, legislative and judiciary powers. However, it comes under China for foreign affairs as well as military defence. The region also tries to hold informal relationships with various nations different quite different at times from the ones pursued by China.

Historically Hong Kong was part of Imperial China. But in 1841, the Qing Dynasty, the last imperial dynasty, admitted defeat when the British Empire seized the Hong Kong Island.  From 1842 to 1941, Hong Kong was formally ruled by the British. Guangxu, the Emperor of China and the UK negotiated a lease agreement for a period of 99 years starting from 1 July 1898. During World War II, Japanese forces attacked Hong Kong and captured its territory. Between 1941 and 1945, Hong Kong was occupied by Japan. And the end of the war, the Japanese imperialist forces were defeated and Britain once again resumed its governance.

The lease stipulated that Britain would leave the territory in 1997 and the two countries signed Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1984 negotiating the terms of this release. It was then that the “one country, two systems” system was established.

Analysis

The system upon which Hong Kong is being governed upon presently is being threatened. On the eve of the 20^th anniversary of this transfer of power, Chinese President, Xi Jinping said that agreement “had no practical significance.” He also has gone onto to noting that any efforts that directly try and challenge the power of the central government will not be allowed. He made these remarks during his first visit to the city since assuming power in 2013. Pro-democracy protests took place only hours before his visit.

He has also issued a clear warning against any powers that might pose a threat to China’s power over Hong Kong.  He said, “Any attempt to endanger China's sovereignty and security ... or use Hong Kong to carry out infiltration and sabotage activities against the mainland is an act that crosses a red line.”

Carrie Lam was the China’s preferred candidate and won a highly restricted election. She has called for unity between the regions.  Upon her victory, Nathan Law, a pro-democracy politician in Hong Kong said, “This result is a nightmare to Hong Kongers.” He was arrested by the Hong Kong state police during the protests leading up to Xi Jinping’s visit.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the Chinese government will continue to increase its influence over Hong Kong until it forfeits its autonomy. The government has made it clear that any external interference would tantamount to crossing the “red line.” The Chinese culture is extremely sensitive to the concept of “losing face,” and any challenge to its authority would be seen as just that.

Britain for its part will have to make a decision on whether or not it should intervene given that it was a key signatory to the agreement that legally bound to uphold the freedoms that Hong Kong was promised.  

It may be coincidental that a US warship recently passed through the disputed Island in South China sea. Beijing called this an act “serious political and military provocation.” If the Chinese are able to take over Hong Kong completely, then it would also pose a threat to Taiwan.

Are these events linked? Is China priming itself for military retaliation? Is Hong Kong fated to lose its autonomy? Will the thin red line be crossed?