Dr. Richard Danzig visits Synergia

Former US Secretary of the Navy, Richard Danzig visited Synergia Foundation on February 22, 2019 for a discussion on Artificial Intelligence and International Security. Dr. Danzig also touched upon a few key points for India and the security related issues arising from rapid technological change.

Background

Richard Danzig is an American lawyer who served as the 71st Secretary of the Navy under President Bill Clinton. He served as an advisor to President Barack Obama during his presidential campaign Dr. Danzig was Secretary of the U.S. Navy in the Clinton Administration and has extensive experience as a consultant to US national security agencies and related national laboratories and other organizations.

Dr. Danzig was sworn in as the 71st Secretary of the Navy on November 16, 1998. He served as Under Secretary of the Navy between November 1993 and May 1997. In the period between these two jobs, he lived in Asia and Europe while Danzig served as a Traveling Fellow of the Center for International Political Economy and as an Adjunct Professor at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs.

Danzig and his wife, Andrea live in Washington, D.C., and have two adult children, David and Lisa. He is currently Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Center for a New American Security, an independent think tank.

Analysis

One exemplary case is presented by recent rapid progress of artificial intelligence capabilities.  Indian and foreign assessments agree that while India’s information technology resources are formidable, India is notably behind the principal nations developing AI, whether measured by strength and number of research institutions, publications, experts, or research conducted by relevant commercial enterprises.

India is responding by enhancing its capabilities, but it may also profit from now considering more complex strategic options. India could, for example, choose to lead in developing norms to constrain militarization of this technology, to minimize risks of any country’s loss of control of automated systems depending on AI, and/or to enhance transparency. It could also restructure military investments to account for likely changes from this new technology and it could usefully debate how to be a fast follower as well as a cutting-edge innovator. It will want to consider the impacts of this technology on its strategic competitions with China and Pakistan.

Finally, as an alternative or complementary strategy India could invest heavily in the development of AI outside of military contexts. This effort could be designed to cross-over to enhance India’s potential for AI work in security contexts, it could self- consciously separate itself from military applications, or the interaction of non- military and military work could be left indeterminate.

Similarly, advances in space technology, synthetic biology, additive manufacturing and robotics will change the national security landscape. Thinking about these issues is no doubt occurring in the Defence Ministry’s Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics and in the Defence Research & Development Organisation as well as in some Indian non-governmental organizations. 3 There can be benefits from comparing American and Indian perspectives in an unclassified discussion.

Dr. Danzig focused on what he called the “Technology Tsunami” or the advancement of technology which is built up over decades but rapidly progresses within 5-10 years. The example cited is the training time required for AI, which stands at less than 10 minutes for any program. In less than two years, the training time for AI has fallen from over 60 minutes to less than 10 minutes, while the build up started in the early 1960s through the development of basic computational and automation programs.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Dr. Danzig’s insights are spot on with regards to rapid technological advancements and the need for India to invest more in its AI research. We believe that Dr. Danzig’s emphasis on an automated and heavily AI-based future is valid.