THE DICHOTOMY OF GLOBAL DOMINATION

In 2017, Xi Jinping announced that China is ready to take the "Centre Stage". By their deeply ingrained culture of not losing face, Chinese are disinclined to make empty claims.

Despite a tumultuous history of domination by the Mongols and the Manchus (whom a disingenuous modern China has adopted as its own) and in the 19^th century by Western Powers, China has come a long way.

Background

China is currently the world's second-largest economy, a technological powerhouse and owns the largest naval flotilla (360 warships) compared to the USA (297 warships, according to USA's office of Naval Intelligence). This is larger than the ships in Indian, German, Spanish and Royal Navies combined!

These significant achievements did not materialise overnight but are a part of a comprehensive strategy with specific timelines for every stage of its growth. Last year, while speaking at the ceremony to mark 100 years of the Chinese Communist Party, President Xi Jinping confidently declared the party's goal to make China the "dominant world power'" by 2049, when the country would be celebrating the centenary year of the formation of the People's Republic of China.

The Chinese know very well that prematurely trying to influence global geopolitical without a matching economic and hard power would be a futile effort which would only lead to embarrassment and regression. This dichotomy between the desire to appear strong and the harsh reality of a weak China in global affairs inspired Deng Xinping to say in 1979, “hide your strength and bide your time.”

Analysis

In recent years the world witnessed a marked difference in how China responded on the global stage. Taking a cue from a hit Chinese film, the 'Wolf Warrior", a new breed of Chinese diplomats, showcased their brand of 'Wolf Diplomacy', a phrase coined by the Chinese. It describes a more forceful, aggressive, and coercive form of international behaviour that would mark the Chinese diplomatic approach in the 21^st century. It was to be in marked contrast to the practice advocated during the regime of Deng Xiaoping, which avoided confrontation and believed in keeping a low profile.

China's behaviour in a host of international situations makes this newfound confidence very evident. Closer home, we have been at an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation on the icy plateau of Eastern Ladakh for nearly two years, with thousands of troops, tanks, guns and aircraft deployed facing each other. China has been pushing its maritime activities in the Indian Ocean, especially around the Indian subcontinent, by sending nuclear submarines and now, the high-tech surveillance ship Yuan Wang 5 docked at Hambantota port in Sri Lanka despite India's protestations. China's military activity and diplomatic rhetoric reached a new height after the recent visit of Ms Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. The drive to reach technological superiority over the U.S. by all means, overt and covert, has finally brought the two great powers into an intense faceoff that goes dangerously beyond mere competition. Last but not least, to dominate the South China sea as its backwater, bullying all its littoral states and disregarding their legitimate rights to EEZs, has been a destabilising factor for the last decade.

President Xi Jinping feels that his country has reached a stage where there is no need to hide its power any longer. It must take its rightful place in the comity of nations as the 'Middle Kingdom' -the centre of world power. The road map to this stature is quite clear.

The first strategy that China has been deploying is to build a sense of regional supremacy, with an emphasis on trade and displacement. Chinese investors have been keen on exercising freedom on resources of other South Asian countries by explicitly putting forward their ambitions to become "ambassadors of development". China's inbound foreign direct investment has steadily increased to $334 billion in 2021.

Chinese leaders have been propagating an idea of a "Harmonious World" with a strategic angle of a "Harmonious Asia '' to promote a sense of common Asian order. Under the veil of uniform Asian security, China hopes to shape an ideological order that matches its objectives. This approach would ultimately provide it with effective veto power on the decisions and stances of its neighbouring countries. This was clearly displayed in the ‘Yuan Wang 5’ incident that despite India's best efforts, Colombo had to permit the ship entry into its port, India's timely financial and material assistance notwithstanding.

The question is whether China is ready to challenge the U.S. as the numero uno power on the globe, or has it prematurely shown its hand? A significant pushback by the U.S. and its European allies is quite visible, and it may technologically and economically drag down the Chinese juggernaut. China's inability to dominate its neighbours, diplomatically or militarily, in South Asia and SE Asia has exposed the limitations of its hard power to date.