A Death Blow to Peace

Leaders of Saudi Arabia and Israel were so close to signing a landmark peace deal that they openly mentioned its imminent conclusion in a public forum, a sense of confidence that now sadly appears rather pre-mature.

Undoubtedly, this would have been the deal of the century with the potential of reformatting the geopolitical canvas of the Middle East in the coming years. Apart from the diplomatic dividend, it has several other connotations- exchange of high tech, especially in defence, security guarantees and even a peaceful nuclear energy programme. It would be a win-win for all the principal protagonists; only the Palestinians and the Iranians seemed to have been left out in the cold.

With the war in Gaza rapidly escalating and threatening to spill over to other parts of the region, normalisation between Israel and its Arab neighbours has again become remote. As the war shapes up to become the worst violence the Israel-Palestine conflict has seen in decades, Saudi Arabia has put the deal on ice as it recalibrates its foreign policy. While it had previously been keen to secure the U.S. defence pact, even if Israel did not offer significant concessions to Palestine, Riyadh now seems to have changed its approach in tandem with rising Arab outrage in the region. 

Background

In the past few months, the Biden administration had been working overtime towards clinching the Saudi-Israel normalisation deal. The two countries do not have formal diplomatic ties to date. Until Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7th sparked a war, Israel and Saudi Arabia had been inching closer to a ground-breaking deal.

The deal would be a milestone for the three countries. Israel has struggled to establish normal diplomatic ties with Arab and Muslim-majority nations since it was founded in 1948 in lands long inhabited by Palestinians. Under the Trump administration, the push for normalisation gained impetus to reshape regional ties and improve Israel's standing, resulting in the Abraham Accords - a set of normalisation agreements with Israel. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco signed the Abraham Accords.

A diplomatic deal between the U.S.’s two most important allies in the Middle East would not just be a win for the U.S. but a major boost for the Biden administration. This could be the crowning moment for a presidency that has been rather lacklustre as the U.S. heads towards the 2024 presidential elections. Geopolitically, it would facilitate Israel’s integration in a region where the Palestinian cause remains the major stumbling block in harnessing its immense economic potential.

While Saudi-Israel cooperation in areas like security and intelligence is not new and has been ongoing quietly behind the scenes for years, the Palestinian issue has been thrust on the frontal stage so suddenly and forcefully that it can no longer be ignored. Saudi Arabia, as the custodian of the holy sites of Mecca and Medina, is responsible to the Muslim world for securing the rights of the Ummah, including the quest for resolving the Palestine question to the satisfaction of the Palestinian Arabs.

It was obvious that the Saudi-Israel deal was causing a great deal of uneasiness in the Middle East, not the least among the Palestinians and their supporters led by Iran. The Palestinians had unequivocally voiced scepticism towards the deal, stressing that their representatives had not been included in negotiations and that too much was being surrendered to Tel Aviv without getting equal measure in return.

Analysis

Saudi Arabia is looking to diversify its oil-dependent economy and strengthen its military security in the long term. Towards this end, it is keen to bring about regional reconciliation. In addition to diplomatic reconciliation, the deal would also bring important defence guarantees from the U.S. and a nuclear cooperation deal. U.S. nuclear power technology and expertise is one of the key requests made by the Kingdom. The Kingdom is keen to secure a U.S. assurance of military protection if it faces an attack, such as the 2019 missile strikes on its oil sites, which were attributed to its regional rival Iran. A strong mutual defence agreement with the U.S. would help deter attacks by Iran or its armed proxies, even as the two adversaries have recently re-established diplomatic ties. 

Normalisation has been a controversial issue in the Arab world, and the war accentuates that. This has been expressed in the King of Jordan's remark that Israel cannot "parachute over Palestine" to deal with Arabs. Since the war broke out, even countries that have signed the Abraham Accords with Israel are reluctant to publicly progress on issues and have been compelled to reiterate their support for Palestinians. There have been pro-Palestine demonstrations in Bahrain and Morocco. The Saudi crown prince has also reiterated the Kingdom's opposition to targeting civilians, the loss of innocent lives, and Riyadh's support for the Palestinian cause. Refusing to condemn Hamas's attack, the prince called for stopping U.S.-backed Israeli military operations and ending Israel’s siege of Gaza.

The war could also jeopardise Saudi Arabia's efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and promote regional cooperation and economic development. The Kingdom is amongst other Gulf States, particularly those with ties to Israel, who are concerned that Iran could be drawn into the Israel-Gaza conflict, escalating it into a broader regional war.