Cosying Up to China?

The border settlement talks between Bhutan and China, not getting the deserved traction in the Indian media, have rung alarm bells in the security quarters as some of the disputed areas converge with India's borders. Bhutan sees the settlement as an opportunity to rid itself of historical burdens and put an end to constant skirmishes with China over the centuries-old border dispute.

However, India's involvement and interests in the region cannot be overlooked, particularly concerning the strategic plateau called Doklam, close to the tri-junction between India, Bhutan, and China.

This development has been in the making for some time as Beijing has been engaging Thimpu vigorously for the last couple of years, which were delayed by the 2017 Doklam stand-off and the pandemic. A three-step road map was signed in October 2021, with the latest meeting this May.

Background

The border disputes between Bhutan and China have existed since the early 1950s, following China's annexation of Tibet. The disputed areas are in Bhutan's western and northern districts, totalling 269 square kilometres and 495 square kilometres, respectively.

China claims the entire plateau, while Bhutan claims the western part. India supports Bhutan's claim. Further, Jakarlung and Pasamlung valleys are located in Bhutan's northern district. China claims the entire valleys, while Bhutan claims the western part.

Negotiations to settle the boundary differences began in 1984. Over the years, both countries have held multiple rounds of talks, including discussions on the Bhutan-China-India tri-junction and areas near Tibet. Despite the efforts, no concrete results have been achieved. Both Bhutan and China have a written agreement to maintain peace and tranquillity along the border until the final resolution of the boundary issue.

In 2017, the situation took a different turn with the Doklam stand-off, during which the militaries of India and China came close to confrontation. The stand-off began when China started building a road in Doklam, which India saw as a threat to its security. India sent troops to the area to stop the construction, and the two countries were locked in a stand-off for 73 days. The stand-off ended after China agreed to withdraw its troops.

China's actions since 2020 have added to the complexity of the issue, with the inclusion of the Sakteng region in eastern Bhutan into the dispute. The Sakteng region is a wildlife sanctuary home to a few endangered species. China's claims in the Sakteng region have been met with strong opposition from Bhutan.

For India, the bilateral issue between Bhutan and China holds strategic importance. The Doklam Plateau is significant for both India and Bhutan, as it is in the tri-junction between the three countries. India supports Bhutan's position in the region.

The border disputes between Bhutan and China are a complex issue with far-reaching implications. Resolving these disputes is essential for maintaining peace and stability in the region.

To sweeten the deal, China has offered some territory in the North, far off from the Doklam plateau but much larger. Concurrently, it has been steadily ratcheting up the pressure on tiny Bhutan with frequent violations of the border, construction of civilian and military structures on the disputed border and offering the carrot of BRI to the Kingdom, which rates it's Gross Domestic Happiness' higher than Gross Domestic Production.

Analysis

The ongoing negotiations between Bhutan and China are crucial, but it is essential to consider India's interests and concerns regarding the disputed areas, particularly those that overlap with its borders. The resolution of the border dispute between Bhutan and China requires careful consideration and dialogue involving all concerned parties to ensure lasting peace and stability in the region.

The issue cannot be resolved bilaterally between China and Bhutan as India is very much a stakeholder. The Doklam plateau opens up a credible route of invasion through Bhutanese territory to the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor (see map below)

China has stepped up its efforts to resolve the border dispute with Bhutan in recent years. In 2021, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on a three-step roadmap for expediting the border negotiations. China's increased urgency in resolving the border dispute is likely due to several factors.

First, China is concerned about the security implications of the dispute. The Doklam plateau is in a strategically important area, which it claims India could use to launch an attack on China’s vulnerable Chumbi Valley. Second, China is concerned about the growing influence of India in Bhutan. India is Bhutan's largest trading partner, and it provides Bhutan with military assistance.

The implications of a resolution between China and Bhutan for India are significant. If China were to gain control of Bhutan's territory, it would be a major strategic setback for India. Bhutan is a buffer state between India and China, and it helps to protect India's northeastern flank. The Siliguri Corridor, a narrow strip of land that connects India's mainland to its northeastern states, runs through Bhutan. If China were to gain control of Bhutan, it could exert more pressure on India by threatening to cut off the Siliguri Corridor. This would have a devastating impact on India's economy and security.

A resolution between China and Bhutan could set a precedent for other border disputes between China and India. If China can pressure Bhutan into a resolution, it could use the same tactic to pressure India on other disputed territories, such as Arunachal Pradesh. This would be a major strategic victory for China, significantly weakening India's position in the region.