COP28: Navigating Progress and Challenges

The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) took place in Dubai, UAE, from November 30 to December 12, 2023. This summit brought together global leaders, climate activists, and experts to deliberate on urgent actions to combat climate change.

While the conference witnessed significant strides, unresolved issues underscored the complexities of achieving global climate goals.

Background

The pivotal and contentious theme of COP28 revolved around the future of fossil fuels. Sultan Al Jaber, the summit President and CEO of the UAE's state oil company, Adnoc, ignited the debate with a controversial statement asserting that "no science" supported the phasing out of fossil fuels. This assertion directly contradicted the established scientific consensus outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, which unequivocally emphasize the imperative of swiftly transitioning from fossil fuels to limit global warming to 1.5°C and avert catastrophic climate change.

Al Jaber's statement elicited widespread global outrage from scientists, environmental groups, and climate activists. Critics accused him of prioritizing the financial interests of the fossil fuel industry over the well-being of the planet and its inhabitants.

Despite the controversy, discussions on transitioning from fossil fuels permeated the summit. Several countries, including the European Union and numerous island nations, reaffirmed their commitment to phasing out coal and other fossil fuels. Additionally, these nations called for tangible actions and financial support from developed countries to facilitate a fair and equitable transition for developing nations.

However, the lack of a concrete agreement on phasing out fossil fuels remained a significant point of contention. Developed nations, including major emitters like the United States and China, refrained from committing to ambitious emissions reduction targets or specific timelines for the phase-out of fossil fuels. This lack of commitment raised concerns about the sincerity of their intentions and cast doubt on the overall efficacy of COP28 in addressing the pressing climate crisis.

The fossil fuel debate at COP28 mirrors the broader global struggle between the imperative for immediate climate action and the entrenched economic interests tied to fossil fuels. While the summit made strides in raising awareness and fostering discussions around transitioning away from fossil fuels, the absence of concrete actions leaves the fate of our planet hanging precariously in the balance.

During the Global Climate Action Through Fostering Sustainable Finance event at COP28, the UAE Banking Federation announced a groundbreaking commitment to collectively mobilize over $270 billion by 2030. This financial commitment signals a significant step towards sustainable finance, crucial for supporting climate-friendly initiatives. The UK announced the incorporation of climate-resilient debt clauses in Africa, starting with Senegal. This initiative gained traction as 73 countries issued a call to action for adopting such clauses, demonstrating a global commitment to addressing the economic impacts of climate change.

France and Japan pledged to lead in supporting the African Development Bank's breakthrough facility leveraging Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) for climate and development. This collaboration aims to channel additional resources to the most needed regions, utilizing SDRs held at the International Monetary Fund. ReNew Energy Global Plc signed a significant memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Asian Development Bank for a funding of $5.3 billion, underscoring the commitment to advancing renewable energy projects.

The Arab Energy Fund unveiled plans to invest up to $1 billion over the next five years in decarbonization technologies, aligning with the regional energy transition towards net-zero goals.

A consortium led by the Rockefeller Foundation launched a pilot initiative leveraging carbon credits to prematurely retire a coal power plant in the Philippines. This innovative approach aims to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels, showcasing the potential of market-driven solutions in addressing climate challenges.

Canada, Brazil, and Egypt announced new methane regulations at COP28, contributing to the Global Methane Pledge. With 155 countries already signatories, this voluntary partnership aims to collectively reduce methane emissions by 30 per cent from 2020 by 2030.

Analysis

While some progress was made, key issues remain unresolved, highlighting the complexities of achieving global climate goals.

One of the bright spots of COP28 was the increased focus on adaptation and resilience. Developed nations recognized the urgency of supporting developing countries in adapting to the impacts of climate change and building their resilience. This resulted in the launch of several initiatives, including the Santiago Network for Loss and Damage, aimed at providing financial and technical assistance to vulnerable nations.

Another positive outcome was the continued momentum for clean energy. Several countries made ambitious commitments to invest in renewable energy and clean technologies, raising hope for a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. This was further bolstered by progress in developing a global carbon market, which could incentivize investments in clean energy projects. However, despite these positive developments, COP28 also witnessed significant missed opportunities.

The most glaring failure was the lack of a concrete agreement on phasing out fossil fuels. This issue was particularly contentious, with major oil-producing nations resisting calls for a rapid transition from fossil fuels. Ultimately, COP28 could not overcome these differences, leaving the future of fossil fuels uncertain and jeopardizing global efforts to achieve net-zero emissions.

Another major disappointment was the failure of developed nations to fulfil their financial commitments to developing countries. While progress was made on climate finance, developed nations fell short of the expectations of developing countries, leaving a significant gap in funding for adaptation and mitigation efforts. This lack of financial support could hinder the ability of developing countries to address the climate crisis effectively.

Furthermore, although some countries announced new emissions reduction targets, the collective ambition remained insufficient to achieve the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement. This lack of ambition is concerning, as it suggests that the international community is not yet fully committed to taking the necessary steps to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

India’s Role in COP 28

As a major developing nation with a growing economy, India played a pivotal role in shaping COP28's discussions. While acknowledging the urgency of climate action, India emphasized the necessity for a balanced approach, considering the developmental aspirations of countries experiencing economic growth. India called for developed nations to provide increased financial and technological support to aid developing nations in transitioning to cleaner energy sources. This stance resonated with many developing countries facing the challenge of reconciling economic growth with environmental sustainability.

Assessment

• The mixed results of COP28 highlight the need for renewed commitment and action from all nations. While the summit produced some positive outcomes, the road to achieving global climate goals remains long and challenging.
• Countries must now translate their commitments into concrete actions, including phasing out fossil fuels, providing adequate financial support to developing countries, and accelerating the transition to a low-carbon future.
• The full impact of COP28 is yet to unfold. However, the summit has undoubtedly raised awareness about the urgency of climate change and the need for collective action. It is now up to the international community to build upon the progress made at COP28 and take decisive action to secure a sustainable future for our planet.