Brexit – not a divorce

Exactly a year after the landmark Brexit vote, negotiations continue between the British government led by British PM Theresa May and officials from the European Union.

A politically weakened May has now assured EU representatives that all EU citizens who were residing in the United Kingdom will have the same rights as British citizens even after Brexit. The official date for UK leaving the EU has been set for March 30, 2019. This is likely to be a relief for the millions of EU citizens who reportedly call the UK home presently; however the details are yet to be ironed out and other serious issues loom over the negotiations.

Background

It was on June 23, 2016, when Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union stunning the Europe and the world in general.  The EU employs a set of policies for its 28 member states that aims to ensure the free movement of people and goods and trade among other services. Britain is deeply intertwined with the workings of EU especially in regards to trade. Leaders of member nations have expressed their dismay over Britain leaving the body over the past year. German Chancellor, Angela Merkel and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte are among those who have been vocal about their apprehension to the unfolding events.

There is a lot at stake including the lives of millions of EU citizens living in UK and millions of British citizens living across European Union member countries. Additionally, there is also the matter of trade agreements, joint programmes and financial commitments that run to the tune of billions of dollars this setting the stages for a contentious battle.

Analysis

Among the primary concerns that emerged after Brexit became official was the fear among the three million odd European citizens living in the UK that they may have to leave the region. Many had deep roots with the region with many even marrying and starting families in Britain. Theresa May, who comes in a weakened mandate having lost the majority during the recent British elections, allayed those fears by noting that a “settled status” will be allotted to any EU citizen who has spent five years in Britain having arrived to the UK before Brexit. However, the deadline for citizens wishing to seek a “UK settled status” is yet to be announced.

EU leaders have expressed cautious optimism for the negotiations so far. However, the battle has only just begun.

Perhaps one of the biggest complications not yet to be broached by negotiators during these talks has to do with the “divorce bill”. Britain plays an integral role in the finances of European Union and its departure will leave the body with a deep hole in its pockets. EU wants a financial settlement from the UK especially regarding the various commitments made by former British Prime Minister, David Cameron, wherein he pledged UK’s commitment to the growth of EU. Officials from both ends will begin haggling out a number that each team will term as fair but might most likely leave neither satisfied. 

Negotiators will also be gearing up for a hard fight regarding the Northern Ireland border. When Brexit is final, the border that the Northern Ireland shares with the Republic of Ireland will be the only border shared with European Union. The Good Friday agreement which came into effect in 1999 put an end to checkpoints, security barriers and observation posts that had existed during the period of the Troubles. However, Brexiteers fear that this would mean there would be free movement of EU citizens through these borders and would cause problems. The negotiators would have to come up with a solution that works around custom checks and also ensures that this would not be a problem for Britain as well.

Assessment

Theresa May had called for the British elections hoping to increase her government’s majority thus providing them with a strengthened mandate before the Brexit negotiations began. However, with an unfavorable outcome that has put her own leadership in question; she no longer wields the power during negotiations. Our assessment is that while the long-term implications of Brexit are still unknown, this may not quite be the divorce that may thought it would be and that’s likely to be a relief for the leaders of the other EU members.