Bolsonaro will use force against violence

Brazil’s leading presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro said on Sunday that, if he is elected, he intends to use the armed forces for routine street patrols, describing the country as “at war.”

Crime and murder rates are near an all-time high in Brazil with the South American country recording 63,880 murders last year.

Background

Brazil, in South America, is one of the world’s biggest democracies. From 2000 to 2012, the country’s average annual GDP grew at a rate of over 5%. In 2012, the economy surpassed that of the United Kingdom, temporarily making it sixth largest economy in the world. In 2017, it was reported to be in the midst of its worst ever recession. The growth rate is now lesser than it was in December 2014. However, it still remains one of the most influential countries in the region.

Jair Messias Bolsonaro is a Brazilian politician who has served as a member of the Chamber of Deputies, representing the state of Rio de Janeiro, since 1991. He is a member of the Social Liberal Party (PSL). Bolsonaro announced his pre-candidacy for president in March 2016 as a member of the Social Christian Party. However, he left the party in 2018 and joined the Social Liberal Party, which launched his presidential campaign in August 2018 with retired general Hamilton Mourão as his running mate.

He portrays himself as an outsider and a supporter for family values. Bolsonaro came in first place in the first round of the general election on 7 October 2018, with PT candidate Fernando Haddad coming in second place.

Analysis

Brazil’s leading presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro said on Sunday that, if he is elected, he intends to use the armed forces for routine street patrols, describing the country as “at war.” The far-right lawmaker and former army captain said in an interview with Band TV that he would discuss the idea with his proposed defense minister and state governments, which are responsible for public safety.

“If Congress grants permission, I would put armed forces in the streets,” Bolsonaro said.

The 63-year-old, seven-term congressman who openly defends Brazil’s 1964-1985 military dictatorship, Bolsonaro is widely expected to win the presidency this month. Opinion polls show him leading his leftist rival Fernando Haddad by 18 percentage points just a week ahead of the Oct. 28 second-round vote.

Scrambling to make up the difference, Haddad on Sunday pledged to increase benefits paid under Brazil’s top social assistance program, known as Bolsa Família, by 20 percent.

Bolsonaro, a polarizing candidate who has been charged with hate speech for his comments regarding gays, blacks and women, has pitched himself as the anti-establishment choice, appealing to voters fed up with political corruption and violent crime.

In August 2017, a year after Rio de Janeiro hosted the Olympic Games, the federal government dispatched 8,500 soldiers to quell violent crime in the city. However, military officials said from the outset that they would not be the ones to resolve issues underpinning the urban violence.

On Sunday thousands of supporters took part in rallies for Bolsonaro in Brazil’s major cities, including São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Brasília.

That followed protests against him on Saturday led by women, for the second time in a month.

Assessment

Our assessment is that Brazil’s fragile political system is at risk if the presidential candidates openly advocate for use of excessive force by state agencies. We believe that Bolsonaro’s military experience and his admiration for the erstwhile military dictatorship of the past may lead to a semi-police state in Brazil.