Autocratic Diplomacy at Play?

After an UN-appointed expert group that monitored North Korea's violations of banned nuclear and ballistic missiles recommended further sanctions, the UN voted to sanction it. However, in a surprise move, Russia has vetoed the monitoring panel, ending the scrutiny of North Korea. China and Russia had earlier backed the deployment of the Panel of experts.

Russia's veto will end the mandate of the Panel, which has been instrumental in monitoring the enforcement of sanctions over the past 14 years. It accuses the Panel of being biased and reducing work to a Western Approach'.

Background

In its dying days, the USSR under Gorbachev continued with economic and military aid to North Korea, but it also recognised South Korea in 1990. However, with the decline of the Soviet Union, subsidies and aid abruptly collapsed, resulting in a catastrophic economic situation for North Korea. Bilateral ties have slowly recovered in the past months as Russia's isolation on the global stage has led it to seek a partnership with North Korea.

Russia invited global criticism after it blocked the renewal of the UN panel for monitoring sanctions against North Korea. This move by Russia is a surprise as it has never tried to block a sanction, while China abstained from the vote. Clearly, a beleaguered Russia pushed into a corner by the West does not resonate with the Western concern about the DPRK's expansion of its nuclear weapons programme.

Russia argued that sanctions are losing relevance in the prevention of nuclear weapon proliferation. However, the role of the Panel was essential in monitoring nuclear weapon activity in the region.

Clearly, Russia’s enhanced interest in North Korea's military and nuclear development has resulted from their growing mutual relations after the war in Ukraine. With the Russian military supply diminishing, not many countries have been eager to join forces with Russia, but North Korea has willingly stepped in to build up the depleting stocks of the Russian Army.

As per UK defence intelligence, Russian ships have regularly carried military cargo from North Korea’s revived Najin post. These reports indicate that around 7,000 containers with arms and ammunition have been sent to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine. Around three million rounds of ammunition have been supplied, along with military equipment and capacity for storage near the war front line. All weapons and munitions sent by the DPRK are Soviet-friendly and easily compatible with Russian weaponry. However, their efficiency is highly questionable.

Analysis

When Russia's trade performance fell and China overtook global production trade, almost 97 per cent of North Korea's trade was with China in 2022. These trade links might have led to closer ties between Russia, China and North Korea.

Russia's support for the DPRK on an international stage is a step forward for Pyongyang, as it aims to end sanctions without compromising on its strategic weapons programme. Calls for concerns rise as Russia may drop non-proliferation norms in return for North Korea's favours. Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) head, Sergei Naryshkin, visited North Korea to deepen military cooperation, discuss regional security, and enhance bilateral collaborations. Cooperation to deal with increased spying and plotting by foreign nations was also discussed. Simultaneously, Russia has been providing the DPRK with food and other essential aid, along with aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armoured vehicles, and equipment for ballistic missile production.

On the other hand, China has played it safe by abstaining from the vote against North Korea's nuclear deal monitoring, citing that diplomacy and political solutions are the only way to resolve tension in the Korean Peninsula. However, Russia's proposals to introduce sunset clauses and reduce panel reports have been seconded by China. Trilateral cooperation might see fertile grounds to grow after the Panel's demise. China accounts for 90 per cent of the total imports and exports from the DPRK, making it a vital trade partner. Despite the UN sanctions, trade between the two nations has flourished and increased during the pandemic.

China has bolstered more economic transactions with the DPRK by opening a bulk cargo and container shipping route, establishing a high-speed rail route, and opening the Guomenwan border trade zone in Dandong.

Reports indicate that sanctions on North Korea are increasingly becoming ineffective because of Russia and China’s support and influence. North Korea supported Russia to prevent the expansion of NATO and the presence of US forces in the Western Pacific.

This veto will be a significant win for Pyongyang to increase missile tests and weapons development. Since 2006, the UNSC has been tightening sanctions against the DPRK and has close monitoring of its nuclear weapons program, but Russia's decision to veto might have been the green card North Korea wanted. North Korea has also been involved in cyber-attacks, valued at $3 billion from 2017 to 2023, to fund its weapons of mass destruction. After the vote, cyberspace may become even more volatile, with more rogue players than it already has.