From Animosity to Solidarity?

Saudi Arabia and Iran are the two powerhouses of the Muslim world. But sadly, over the years, the relationship between these two nations has gone through highs and lows. As claimants of the leadership of the global Islamic community, a geopolitical contestation was a natural fallout.

In recent times, some kind of rapprochement had begun to take place as Riyadh and Tehran moved to find common ground. One of the sticking points of this relationship has been the normalisation of ties with Israel. While the Saudis, under U.S. prompting and with their interests uppermost in mind, have been agreeable to this, the Iranians have shown no sign of any flexibility towards Tel Aviv, their sworn enemy.

In March this year, the decision by Saudi Arabia and Iran to reinstate diplomatic relations after seven years of intense rivalry, including many proxy wars, came as a surprise to the world. The surprise, or shall we say shock, was even greater for the U.S. when it was revealed that secret backstage talks between the two countries had been going on for some time under Chinese tutelage.

Since October 7^th, as the conflict in Gaza has intensified, domestic public outrage in Saudi Arabia has forced the Saudi Arabian leaders to align their policies towards Israel more in tune with the Iranian rhetoric. In the best of times, this would have made Riyadh extremely uncomfortable. But now, as Israel refuses to make any concessions, the Saudi leadership finds itself sailing in the same boat as Teheran, a prospect that few in the Kingdom would relish for the long term.

On November 11, 2023, an Islamic Summit was held in Riyadh. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia expressed strong condemnation of Israel's ongoing war in Gaza during this summit in their own way but showed a surprising commonality of views.

However, the question remains whether, despite the current accommodation, both nations will remain on the same page, considering the vast historical chasm between the two.

Background

Iran and Saudi Arabia have quite a long history with each other.

The relationship goes back to the year 1979. This was the year when cataclysmic changes took place in the Persian Gulf. The Islamic Revolution brought the Islamic Republic in Tehran, led by a hard-core clergy that declared its open hostility to the West and the concept of monarchy, especially the House of Saud.

Iran has always opposed all foreign influence from the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia has consistently opposed any such move as this could open the doors to Shia Iran’s dominance of the Gulf region.

The senseless Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, instead of destroying the Iranian revolution, made it more enduring, much to the dismay of Saudi Arabia and the U.S., who had been openly supporting Saddam Hussain during this conflict. In retaliation, Iran started spreading Shia radicalism in the Middle East, especially in rich Sunni nations like Iraq and Saudi Arabia, with a substantial but repressed Shia population.

The destruction of the Saddam regime by the Western Coalition really brought things to a head between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as now the Western military presence in the Middle East had become overwhelming. The removal of Saddam brought Shias to power in Iraq and effectively removed a buffer between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The Iranian nuclear program also started to receive increasing global attention from 2002 onwards and became a cause of concern for the Saudis. The 2010-11 Arab Spring further increased tensions between these two giants. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have been on opposite sides in the Syrian and Yemeni civil wars, which owe their origins to the Arab Spring.

The 2003 invasion of Iraq by the United States upended the power balance between Iran and Saudi Arabia in a significant way. Post 2003, Iranian influence began to grow steadily in Iraq. There was the talk of a developing "Shia Crescent" stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria and finally reaching Lebanon. This was a challenge to countries with considerable Shia populations who were largely marginalised and, even worse, oppressed. The Iranian threat was now directly at their doorsteps. As the mentor of all Shia militias, especially the battle-hardened Hezbollah of Lebanon, Iran wielded considerable mischief-making ability in the entire Sunni world.

Analysis

The interactions between Iran and Saudi Arabia can be classified in many different ways. It can be called a managed rivalry. Some experts have also termed it an Islamic Cold War.

The ongoing Israel-Palestine war has changed these equations, at least for the duration of the war. In the face of Israel’s continuing assault on the Gaza Strip to crush Hamas militarily for good, Riyadh has had to recalibrate its position more than Tehran. In the Islamic Summit, the Iranians called on all Muslim countries to totally cut off relations with Israel and declare the Jewish state a terrorist entity. However, the Saudis have moderated this position by opposing both these calls while continuing to criticise Israel.

In some ways, the two regimes are quite similar. Both believe in a fundamentalist version of Islam of the two sects, Shia and Sunni. In the case of Iran, this fundamentalism is tinged with a strong feeling of anti-Westernism, especially against the U.S. The Saudi Wahhabi version of Islam is a little bit different. It, too, is more conservative and xenophobic, but a long and fruitful relationship with the West has made the tilt to the U.S. palatable even to the most extremist Saudi tribes.

Riyadh stakes claim to be the leader of the Islamic world. This status has wide acceptance not only because of it being the birthplace of Islam and blessed with its most revered icon, but also due to its benevolence towards less fortunate Muslim countries. Saudi Arabia has generously opened its purse to poorer members of the Muslim ummah. Iran has challenged this narrative, especially after its Islamic revolution of the 1970s.

For Iran, Saudi Arabia’s responsibilities towards Islam have never been devout enough. Some Iranian extremists even consider the Saudis to be beyond the pale of Islam itself. They believe that the Saudis have corrupted the true and original Islam. For these hardliners, any compromise with Saudi Arabia is anathema. These people will not rest until the Saudi regime is finally overthrown and replaced with their version.

Saudi Arabia, too, has its issues with Iran. Sunni Muslims are the majority of the population in the Kingdom. However, there is a minority of Shia Muslims in the oil-rich eastern provinces of the Arabian Peninsula. There is a historic sense of disgruntlement amongst these Shia communities, with the more extreme clerics being routinely executed for treason, many publicly and their bodies crucified for public display. Shias in Saudi Arabia claim that they are treated like second-class citizens.

Iran, on the other hand, has considered itself to be the supporter of oppressed Shia Muslims throughout the world. With such an ideological bent of mind, the Iranian government could never ignore the Arab Shias right across the Persian Gulf. This is a question of the credibility of the Iranian regime. It achieves two objectives concurrently- propagation of the extreme form of Shia Islamic ideology and undermining the very foundations on which the Saudi monarchy rests.

Saudi Arabia is justifiably wary of the revival of some kind of an informal 'Persian' empire in the region, which would threaten its pre-eminent position within the Islamic and Arab worlds and the continuation of the House of Saud.

Even after discounting the alleged nuclear capability of Tehran, in most respects, Iran is a much more powerful nation than Saudi Arabia. It has a larger population. Its military is also much bigger. In economic terms, though, Saudi Arabia is far ahead with prolonged U.N. sanctions having brought the Iranian economy nearly to its knees.

Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) has been globally acknowledged as a 'man of transformation' for Saudi Arabia, despite the gruesome Jamal Khashoggi episode, which seems to have been put behind by all the major players in the drama. As the architect of Saudi Vision 2030, MBS wants to diversify his nation economically, socially and culturally. In this, the West, the technologically empowered Israel, and the vast markets of India have a big role to play. For Vision 2030 to fructify, peace in the Middle East and rapprochement with Israel are two prerequisites.

The October 7^th Gaza attack is clearly a well-planned move that aims not only to bring Palestine statehood back on the global negotiation table but, more importantly, derail the amalgamation of the oil-powered Middle East economies with the global markers. The usual suspects in this conspiracy are not difficult to identify- they are those who will be left out in the cold if Saudi Vision 2030 achieves its immense potential. From the Indian perspective, the India-Middle East- Europe Corridor is vital to this vision.