All eyes on Trump
July 6, 2017 | Expert Insights
US President Donald Trump has arrived in Poland ahead of the G20 Summit slated to take place on 7th and 8th of July.
This would be his second meeting with many of the NATO leaders in less than a month. Polish leaders will be looking forward to whether he would affirm his commitment to Article 5.
Background
The Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is based on the principle of collective defence. It notes that any attack on one of the NATO signatories would be considered an attack on all. This was invoked for the first time in history after the 9/11 terror attacks in the US.
On May 25, 2017, Trump addressed the NATO leaders in Brussels. In the printed speech, there was a clear affirmation by the US to Article 5, but while delivering the speech, Trump completely omitted this sentence. National security adviser H.R. McMaster, Defense Secretary James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson then conducted damage control and expressed to European allies that US was as committed as ever. Trump spoke of his commitment to Article 5 in a subsequent press conference press conference in June with Romanian president, Klaus Iohannis recommitted.
But worries have persisted.
Analysis
In his keynote speech in Warsaw, he highlighted the rise in terrorism and extremism in the world. He also spoke about the need for the Western civilization to survive. His visit and speech will be closely monitored by Poland’s neighbor, Russia. One of Trump’s main agenda for this trip is to promote the supply of liquified natural gas. This is an obvious attempt by the US to cut into Russia’s trade.
Poland has borne the brunt of disruptions of Russian supplies in the past. And it has been actively trying to wean itself from its reliance on Russia. In fact, it plans to build a gas pipeline linking the country with Norwegian gas deposits via the Baltic Sea. It will be looking at America for cooperation in that front. This may not please Putin, who might consider this as a challenge to his home-turf.
Assessment
Our assessment is that Poland will position itself as the go-to ally for the US in Europe. The current populist, anti-immigration, right-wing government in Poland will try and garner favor from the American President who shares a lot of the same values. However, this may also escalate tensions between the US and Russia.
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