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Shifting Sands In Asia

July 15, 2022 | Expert Insights

It is fashionable to call this the ‘Asian Century.’ But amidst all the optimism lie embedded niggling doubts. In light of the recent transformational events that have taken place, does the concept of the Asian Century still hold true? Is economic heft sufficient for Asia to claim the Century? And more importantly, what are the key drivers or factors that will impact the trajectory of Asia over the next 10 to 15 years? And finally, what are the plausible scenarios that could emerge for Asia by 2035? 2035 is not very far away by historical standards; it is just 13 years away from now. Because in the last ten years, India’s GDP has doubled, a 10–12-year period is not a particularly long period.


Unipolar Asia?


The base case scenario for the Asian Century is an Asia that China dominates. Any other scenario would be an aberration and somewhat of a Black Swan event. Despite the difficulties that the Chinese economy faces, almost all predictions about China’s growth and GDP are pretty uniform, putting China at a GDP of about $50 trillion by 2035, the United States at $36 trillion, and India at about $10 trillion. The question then becomes whether we are talking of an Asian or Chinese century. What might unfold is that possibly, for the first time, a global power that is resident in Asia and not in Europe or North America. And this will have major implications for the security architecture of the entire region.


Will China be an interventionist power like the United States or the erstwhile Soviet Union, or will it take a different shape and form regarding global institutions? The BRI and successor programmes indicate an alternative approach, both to the consolidation of power within and consolidation of power without. The second question that arises is whether Asia is amenable to a security architecture in the form that we have seen in Europe and in the transatlantic alliance or earlier during the Soviet times of the Warsaw Pact. The prognosis for an Asia security architecture is still highly bleak.


There are serious identity issues. While the focus may be on East Asia, the fact is that multiple Asias impact the security architecture- West Asia, Central Asia and South Asia. And the question is whether with a China-dominated Asia, what will be its influence over the non-East Asian parts of Asia. Will there be a convergence of security perspectives within Asia, or will we continue to see fragmentation as evident in West Asia? The rise of India will be a major factor in how China and India handle each other and live with each other in such an Asian Century. China and India face challenges, but how much of this will lead to unipolar or multipolar Asia is also a question that seeks answers. If we go by the base case scenario of an Asia dominated by China, we are heading towards a unipolar Asia. If that is the case, what would be the responses from the residential powers and powers outside Asia?


U.S. China Contestation


The world has witnessed different phases of the U.S.-China rivalry. However, as time passes, we will see more and more peer relationships between the two powers. In 2017, the United States national security strategy referred to China for the first time, and in the last six years, the U.S. national security approach to China has been informed by this new paradigm of major power relationships.
As a consequence of this big power rivalry, a certain degree of hedging and uncertainty will exist among the middle powers of Asia. Here the role of India could become critical in terms of offering choices to other Asian countries in values, systems, institutions, etc.
Markets and technology will play a critical role in this region, largely because of the great population centres that exist here. India will be a huge market by 2035. The question is whether production can be democratised and manufacturing centres created outside China.
Technology will be a critical driver of influence; a technological race is underway, which will impact Asia as it will impact the rest of the world.


If China is the dominant major global power, then the lines between Asia and Europe or Asia and other continents will likely blur. So, can other Asian countries claim a stake in the so-called Asian Century? If yes, then what is the space that they will occupy?
While the region has many fault lines, Taiwan could be critical. There is unlikely to be any conflagration over Taiwan till 2035 because all parties understand that any breakout of kinetic war in the region will be extremely disruptive and detrimental to China and other parties who might be forced into such a conflict.


An Asian Union?


Can Asian countries overcome all their differences and form an Asian union? The fact is that Asia remains as fragmented as it was many decades ago. There is a lack of Asian identity that will bring different sub-regions of Asia together to form some kind of a project or an organisation, as we have seen in Europe. Paradoxically, the only initiative that seems to link Asia’s sub-regions is the Chinese BRI. There have been some studies on creating an Asian Monetary Fund, again a localised East Asian project spearheaded by the ASEAN. It does not command much consensus within the Asian region.