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WATER WATER EVERYWHERE!!

September 3, 2022 | Expert Insights

The power of climate change has been so asymmetrical that there may be wildfires, droughts, and power outages in one region of the planet, while another corner may be drowning in water. For South Asia, desperately dependent on Monsoon rains for its very survival, prolonged rains are no longer a sign of respite but rather a symbol of death and destruction.

Our immediate neighbour, Pakistan, is dealing with one of the most catastrophic floods it has ever endured in recorded history. As of this week, a startling one-third of the nation was submerged, affecting more than 30 million people and resulting in at least 1,100 civilian deaths and the influx of about 500,000 people into relief camps. Warned the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres ominously, “Today it is Pakistan-tomorrow it could be your country!” Mr Guterres called for a generous collaborative action to help Pakistan.

Background

South Asia is used to the annual flooding that usually accompanies the life-giving rains. But nature is growing increasingly fierce, and the people await the Monsoons with dread.

Pakistan suffered massive and unprecedented floods in 2010 in which more than 1,700 people were killed, about 20 million people were affected, and billions of dollars were lost due to damage to infrastructure, houses, farmland, livestock, and other household assets. More than 2 million hectares of standing crops were damaged or lost, and more than 1.1 million homes were destroyed or rendered uninhabitable. More than a decade later, just as Pakistan's vast rural economy was recovering from the long-term impacts of the 2010 floods, the clouds burst once again, dwarfing the 2010 flooding, and creating a humanitarian tragedy of gigantic proportions. As per Pakistan's Minister for Climate Change, the country may be facing famine.

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Analysis

Floods, apart from the immediate impact on human and animal lives and the destruction of property and infrastructure, have long-term economic and social impacts. In developing countries, they drag down poverty alleviation programmes. It has been seen that for decades after megafloods, indicators of socioeconomic and educational status of the flood-affected areas continuously lag behind those of the unaffected areas. The destruction of their infrastructure and sources of income causes them to fall further behind. The majority most badly impacted are generally small farmers and unskilled workers. They are one of Pakistan's most vulnerable groups, and nearly all of them are living at or below the poverty line.

The 2022 floods will once again pull the country away from a decade of development. It is so because Pakistan has taken a dangerous hiatus in building climate-resilient infrastructure. For instance, Nepal and Vietnam, which can be characterized by similar risk profiles, have proactively invested in constructing infrastructure to withstand climate shocks. If the government had invested in warning systems, it could have drastically reduced the estimated 10 billion USD loss incurred. In addition, the government failed to monitor settlement patterns in flood-prone areas and provide advisories for flood-resilient buildings

Pakistani government ministers have been shifting the blame for recurring floods on climate change 'for which Pakistan is not responsible." There is an element of truth in this claim because floods of this magnitude are aberrant in nature, as UN Secretary-General António Guterres put it, a "monsoon on steroids." 

The overwhelming surplus of rainfall within a very short time period that leads to flooding is a by-product of global warming ,along with increased glacial melt and heavy precipitation. The rise in temperature increases water evaporation from the seas and warms the atmosphere allowing it to hold more moisture. Hence, there is an increase in the duration and intensity of rainfall, causing multiple monsoonal cycles to emerge erratically throughout the year. Pakistan has already seen eight monsoonal cycles this year compared to its usual four and is expected to have another in October.

Pakistan, like many other similarly situated developing countries, cannot wish away its own complicity in aggravating the natural disaster. Primarily, Pakistan’s unstable political system and slumping economy prevented the government from implementing preventive measures. Historically, the country has never had a Prime Minister complete a full term. The urge to win public support side-lined preparations for a large-scale flood. Moreover, with inflation touching 27.3 percent and external debt scaling to 130 billion dollars, the country does not have the funds to initiate adaptation projects.

There are startling parallels between the catastrophe Pakistan is currently facing and India's previous experiences with unpredictable weather. Both nations have a common colonial legacy in terms of urban development and flood control. Rain falls in Pakistan during the same southwest monsoon that supplies the majority of India's annual precipitation. The Himalayan glaciers that are melting disregard national boundaries. Therefore, the Subcontinent's ecological continuity strengthens the need for regional collaboration on climate-related issues.

India faced similar cloudbursts and flooding in its northern states; however, the government managed to minimize the impact by implementing pre-emptive policies. The Flood Management and Border Areas Programme (FMBAP) is an initiative of the central government to assist all states in flood management and prevention. Countries like Pakistan could improve their disaster management mechanism. Moreover, in times of need, neighbours are the fastest responders; therefore, maintaining cordial relationships could help both countries tackle climate-induced disasters in the future. 

Assessment

  • The recurrence of heavy rainfall and cloudbursts has become a regular feature in South Asia. Monsoonal cycles will become longer, hampering food production. Pakistan’s agricultural sector contributes nearly 24% to the GDP. Any disruption of the sector will be cataclysmal to the nation's food security and its people unless the sowing pattern can be modified.
  • The destruction this year is unevenly distributed across Pakistan's diverse landscape. Sindh and Balochistan, two generally parched southern provinces, respectively received 336 per cent and 446 per cent more rain in July than they typically do. They are also the most neglected and backward provinces compared to Punjab. Not surprisingly, they were particularly ill-equipped to take in the glacial melt downstream.
  • Despite having a very low carbon footprint, Pakistan is one of the ten nations that are most affected by extreme weather events, as per the Global Climate Risk Index 2021. So when Pakistanis blame the developed world for bringing on this disaster upon them, they are not far from the truth. It is about time, the world looked at a massive collaborative effort to deal with the growing threat of adverse climate events.