Venezuela on the brink of chaos

A massive effort to break President Nicolás Maduro’s blockade of humanitarian aid descended into violence and chaos across the string of border flash points, showing both the growing defiance of Juan Guaidó and Maduro’s willingness to fight back.

Background

The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is located in northwest South America. In 2017, the UN estimated that the country is home to over 31 million people. The country stretches across over 900,000 square kilometres. It is bordered by the Caribbean Sea in the north, and Columbia, Guyana, and Brazil in the west, east, and south respectively. Venezuela was colonised by Spain in 1522 and became the first Spanish territory to declare independence from the empire in 1811.

Despite having the world’s largest oil deposits, many Venezuelans live in abject poverty. The former President Hugo Chavez, was in office from 1999 to 2013, during which time billions of dollars were spent on generous social programs. However, since his successor Nicolas Maduro took office, there has been a rise in inflation and a shortage of basic goods. A drop-in oil price has added to the administration’s problems.

The UN says 1.6 million Venezuelans since 2015 have fled the economic meltdown in the country, which has been hit by shortages of basic necessities such as food and medicine.

Analysis 

In a day of fast-moving developments at various points, anti-Maduro crowds at a Colombian border town faced tear gas fired by Venezuelan units, cheered as dozens of Venezuelan security forces switched sides and tried to rescue desperately needed aid packages from burning trucks.

In all, 285 people were injured and 37 hospitalized on the Colombian side of the border, according to Colombia’s foreign minister. At least four were killed on the Venezuela-Brazil border after clashing with pro-government militias.

In the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, the embattled Maduro danced at a pro-government rally, mocked the United States and broke off ties with neighboring Colombia. Late in the day, Venezuelan navy vessels threatened to open fire on a ship carrying 200 tons of aid from Puerto Rico, Ricardo Rosselló, governor of Puerto Rico, said in a statement. He said he had ordered the vessels to abandon the area temporarily, decrying the threat as “unacceptable.”

In a tweet, Guaidó suggested that he would entertain more radical solutions to try to oust Maduro, a reference taken by observers to mean that he may broach the subject of additional steps by the United States, which has already imposed deep sanctions on Venezuela. The Trump administration has also repeatedly said that a military option in Venezuela is not off the table.

He also said he would meet with the opposition’s allies, referencing a meeting that Vice President Pence was also set to attend. Pence is expected to meet with Guaidó, a U.S. official said.

The attempt to move humanitarian aid into Venezuela, opposition leaders hoped, would prompt members of the Venezuelan armed forces to defy Maduro by refusing to carry out orders to block delivery of aid to fellow countrymen in desperate need of food and medicine. The plan worked, to a degree: Roughly 60 members of Maduro’s military and security forces abandoned posts, denounced him and sought refuge with the opposition on Colombian soil.

The chaos was evident throughout towns on both sides of the border.

In San Antonio, just across the Simón Bolívar Bridge from Colombia, tear gas billowed and protesters responded by throwing rocks at Venezuelan forces.

Assessment 

Our assessment is that Venezuela is on the brink of becoming a failed state in Latin America. The US-backed opposition has yet to make a credible claim for power and It has resulted in an immigration crisis in the region which is affecting countries like Brazil and Colombia. Maduro has projected a defiant stance in the face of the crisis and has shown himself unwilling to cooperate with the international community. This will further damage the nation’s prospects in extricating itself out of the current crisis.

Image courtesy: Oscar . (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:3_de_mayo_-_Manifestación_en_contra_del_gobierno_de_Venezuela_03.jpg), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode

Read More :