Utter chaos?

China has said that there would be “utter chaos” if India does not back down from the stand-off at the Doklam plateau.

Background

In June 2017, a skirmish broke out between Indian and Chinese troops at the Doklam plateau. Indian soldiers had intervened the construction work being conducted by China in the region. The area is a disputed territory between Bhutan (an Indian ally) and China.

Both sides have increased their military presence in the region and neither party has yielded.

India has maintained that India China’s actions in the plateau are a direct security concern for the nation. Bhutan has said that China’s construction work did infringe on disputed borders. It has called for a de-escalation of the situation.

Analysis

China has issued a number of veiled threats at India and its state-media has broached the possibility of war. It has called on India to completely withdraw its troops but the latter has refused to do so. Sushma Swaraj, India’s Minister of External Affairs has said that both sides ought to withdraw at the same time.

Hua Chunying, the foreign ministry spokesperson of China has now labelled India’s actions “illegal” as well as “ridiculous and vacuous”. Chunying in a pointed remark noted that China in the future could interpret India’s infrastructural growth as a cause to infringe on Indian territory.

He said, “The Indian side illegally crossed the boundary on the excuse of Chinese road building. The reason is ridiculous, vicious and facts are clear. You may think about it. If we tolerate India's ridiculous logic, then anyone who dislikes the activity at his neighbour's home can break into its neighbour's house. Does that mean when China thinks that large-scale construction of infrastructure at the border area of India is posing a threat, it can enter Indian territory? Wouldn't that be utter chaos?”

Chunying remarks come shortly after India’s Union Home Minister, Rajnath Singh expressed hope for dialogue between both nations. He said, “Here is a deadlock in Doklam. I hope that this is broken soon, I am hopeful that China will initiate dialogue soon.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs have also noted that they would be open to engaging with the Chinese side to seek a diplomatic resolution.

Assessment

Our assessment is that it seems unlikely for either party to reach a consensus soon. As we had earlier predicted, China could possibly be open to a limited war. This stand-off could also affect India’s participation in the upcoming BRIC Summit slated to take place in September.