US warns Venezuela

The United States warned of "consequences" against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's security services if they continue with a crackdown against opposition leader Juan Guaido and his aides.

Background

Juan Guaidó is a Venezuelan politician who has been serving as President of the National Assembly of Venezuela and as the partially recognized acting President of Venezuela since January 2019. He is a member of the centrist social-democratic Popular Will party and serves as a federal deputy to the National Assembly, representing the state of Vargas.

During the 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis, Guaidó took a public oath to serve as acting President of Venezuela, contesting the leadership of Nicolás Maduro. As of February 2019, his position on holding the acting presidency, based on an interpretation of Article 233 of the Constitution of Venezuela, has been recognized by more than 50 governments. The Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) rejected the National Assembly decisions while the Supreme Tribunal of Justice of Venezuela in exile welcomed him as acting president.

The United States has recognised Guaido’s role as President to be the true representative of the Venezuelan people and has shifted its policy towards the country to actively include a regime change.

Analysis

A US State Department spokesman called for the release of Guaido's chief of staff, Robert Marrero, who was arrested in a pre-dawn raid. "The detentions show Maduro is betting on repression to hold on to power. It will not stand," the spokesman said. "There will be consequences for a continued crackdown."

The spokesman said the arrests were facilitated by Venezuelan Judge Carol Padilla, prosecutors Farid Mora Salcedo and Dinora Bustamante, and Sebin intelligence officials Danny Contreras and Angel Flores, and added that the United States and regional partners were considering next steps. The arrest was denounced earlier on Thursday by Guaido as a "vile, vulgar kidnapping." He said, "we won't be intimidated".

One opposition lawmaker who is a neighbour of Marrero's and whose home was also searched, Sergio Vergara, told reporters that Marrero had yelled out during his arrest that Sebin intelligence officers had planted two assault rifles and a grenade in his place as a pretext.

"The United States condemns raids by Maduro's security services and detention of Roberto Marrero, Chief of Staff to Interim President @jguaido. We call for his immediate release. We will hold accountable those involved," US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Twitter. "Maduro has made another big mistake. The illegitimate arrest of Roberto Marrero, Interim President Juan Guaido's aide, will not go unanswered. He should be released immediately and his safety guaranteed," added National Security Advisor John Bolton.

Venezuelan Interior Minister Nestor Reverol accused Marrero, a 49-year-old lawyer, of leading a "terrorist cell" bent on attacking the government's leadership with the help of Colombian and Central American mercenaries as well as "acts of sabotage on public services to create chaos." He said weapons and foreign cash were found in a predawn raid on Marrero's home. He added that Marrero's 34-year-old bodyguard, Luis Paez, was also arrested and faced the same charges and a search was on for "identified" collaborators. Later, President Nicolas Maduro said he would "not be afraid to fight terrorist groups to put them in jail".

The development triggered alarm internationally. The European Union and a grouping of Latin American nations plus Canada all denounced Marrero's arrest and demanded his immediate release. A UN spokesman expressed "concern" at the arrest, urging "all actors in Venezuela to take immediate steps to lower tensions and refrain from any action that could lead to further escalation."

Maduro and Guaido both claim to be Venezuela's legitimate leader but Maduro, 56, retains the loyalty of the military brass and has control of state apparatus. Guaido, 35, declared himself interim president on January 23 and has the backing of the US and more than 50 other countries.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the detention of Juan Guaido and his aides strengthens the perception of them being credible opponents to Maduro’s government. We believe that the terrorism charges on Guaido and his aides ensure a harsh punishment from the court, which Maduro hopes will extinguish any succession of leaders to oppose the Maduro-led government.

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