US Presidential Elections 2024

As we inch closer to the first Tuesday of November 2024, the election fever is catching up in the U.S. and spreading to the rest of the globe. American politics have impacts far beyond its shores, and the whole world keenly awaits the outcome of these elections.

The stage has already been set with the incumbent President and his arch-rival, Mr Trump, having thrown down their gauntlets.

By all likelihood, 2024 would be a repeat of the cacophony that was seen in 2020, an event that did not bring any glory to the worldview of American democracy. America's well-wishers and admirers, of whom there is a legion, would sincerely hope that that sad spectacle would not be repeated this time.

The caustic bickering and name-calling have already started as Mr Trump launches his election campaign, known for its vitriolic and no-holds-barred comments. For the liberals, it is once again time to gear up to face the challenge, as Mr Trump is never one to beat easily.

For those of us who watch from the sidelines this greatest show of democracy on the earth, it is going to be nothing short of a roller coaster ride,

Background

The two protagonists could not have been any different in their make-up.

Some would call Mr Donald Trump an accidental politician right from the start. He came into the political arena at a time when there was a high level of apathy among a large portion of the American population towards the ruling elite. But there was no single person who could channel all this outrage. Mainstream politicians from either party were not trusted. They were seen as part of the problem rather than the solution. People were searching for a fresh face who would bring about radical change. At this time, Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the President of the United States in 2015. He unequivocally stated that the “forgotten masses” of the country would be forgotten no more.

Initially, the chances of Trump succeeding in reaching the White House was low to non-existent. Conventional politicians on both sides of the aisle were against him. It was an uphill battle for him. But luck favoured him. His opponents in the Republican Party gave a lacklustre performance in the primaries. They shot themselves in the foot through their statements. Complacency set in among them through the idea that Trump was not a worthy challenger. This was their most serious mistake. And Trump took full advantage of this.

When pitted against the experienced and formidable Hillary Clinton, Mr Trump was, to begin with, the underdog. Apparently, a sound strategist, the Trump team was tasked to harness the power of big data to aid his cause. His enemies have accused him of getting help from Russia in this regard. However, after a lengthy investigation, nothing substantial linked him directly with Russian collusion. Ads specifically targeting Clinton personally worked their magic, and she had nothing much to counter this in return. So, she lost the elections, which she was confident, till almost the end, that she was winning. Those who were watching the election results that November day four years ago will never forget how the spreading tide of Red finally eclipsed the Blue in the most unexpected manner. The rest is history.

When the 2020 presidential elections arrived, it was expected to be a close contest. But Joe Biden won a victory that, to date, Mr Trump and his die-hard band of supporters refuse to acknowledge, and their assault on Capitol Hill could rank as a day of infamy for American democracy.

Following current trends, Mr Trump continues to enjoy a substantial support base that could take him to the forefront in the Republican primaries. The Democrats have left no stone unturned to disqualify him from political office. He was impeached twice and is under investigation in various states for his role in the Jan 06 assault on the Capitol and many of his allegedly false declarations.

Others from the Republican stable who have made public their decision to contest include Nikki Haley (51 years), who was Trump's ambassador to the U.N. and a former governor of South Carolina. She is from an Indian immigrant family.

Another candidate is 37 years old Vivek Ramaswamy, whose parents migrated to the U.S. from Kerala. He is a former tech and finance executive and has been prominent in conservative circles, arguing against environmental, social and governance movements. He is the counterfoil to Mr Trump but is considered a long shot for the Republican nomination.

Likely candidates, who are yet to make their call officially, include Mr Ron DeSantis, 44 years, Florida governor who many rank as the closest rival to Mr Trump, Trump’s Vice President Mr Mike Pence (63 years) and John Bolton (74) former National Security Advisor.

Analysis

With almost 18 months to go, it is too early to make any kind of predictions. U.S. presidential elections have a life of their own, and the ups and downs are as frequent. Public favour is fickle and does not take much to waver.

Reams have been written on the performance of Mr Trump during his Presidency. His detractors call him a disruptor who broke more of the working systems than creating new ones to replace them. His call for 'America First' caused a drift in foreign policy but won many supporters at home, especially amongst the blue-collar class and the right-wingers. The fact that a vast number continue to believe till the very end that Mr Trump had been 'cheated out' of victory speaks volumes about the degree of support that Mr Trump still enjoys. So, it would be unwise to write off Mr Trump as yet. The major roadblocks are his legal woes, the disastrous reputation of his last term as President and the lack of change in his mercurial and unpredictable character. Trump also faces competition within the Republican Party in the primaries. Here the person who has the greatest chance of overcoming his dreams is Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida. So, the road ahead for the Trump campaign won't be as easy as expected.

The Biden administration was supposed to be a return to the status quo; big government had come back to Washington, DC. Spouting human rights concerns in other countries has become an American passion again. But the racial situation within the U.S. did not improve.

Mr Trump labels President Biden as a weak leader. According to him, the globalists have regained their sway in the United States. Hardworking Americans who wanted their jobs back from overseas have suffered under the Trumpian logic.

The U.S. economy is also not in good shape, and middle-class Americans especially feel this brunt. Global factors like the war in Ukraine continue to strain the economy, and continuing weapons supply is depleting U.S. stocks.

Immigration is another issue where the Biden administration has not succeeded. The border wall proposed by Trump has been scrapped. No other proposal has been suggested to replace this.

The failures of the Biden administration are substantial. This coupled with the advancing age of President Biden, who is already 80, could make re-election a difficult proposition.