US-North Korea relations moving ahead

President Trump arrived in Vietnam on February 26  to discuss denuclearization with Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, capping off months of threats and weapons tests, recriminations and rapprochements.

Background 

The relationship between the US and North Korea has always been fractious. During the war between North and South Korea in 1950, US forces successfully intervened on behalf of South Korea.

The North Korean nuclear program has been a source of concern for the US and the international community for decades. North Korea has remained an isolated nation and its nuclear program has especially been a concern for the international community. In 2017, North Korea has launched 23 missiles in the course of 16 tests. In November 2017, North Korea after seemingly two months of silence tested its most potent missile yet. The Hwasong-15 missile reached an unprecedented height of almost 4,500 kilometres (2,800 miles). The Hwasong-15 is a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile. This represents a serious escalation in the stability of the Korean peninsula.

Trump has taken an aggressive stance while countering North Korea. In 2017, he said that North Korea “will be met with fire and the fury like the world has never seen.” North Korea responded by announcing that plans were underway for it to strike Guam, a US territory. Both Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump were locked in an extended war of words in 2017, with both threatening wars.

2018 saw an unprecedented change in the relation between the two countries as Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un met in Singapore for the first bilateral summit.

Analysis 

Fear of war gripped the Korean Peninsula in 2017 after a series of North Korean missile tests prompted Mr. Trump to threaten that country with “fire and fury.” Mr. Kim responded with what appeared to be a successful test of a hydrogen bomb and launched an intercontinental ballistic missile that it said was powerful enough to reach the continental United States.

After the two leaders met in June 2018, tensions eased dramatically — the North stopped testing weapons, and the United States halted military exercises with the South. But the leaders did not iron out a clear path to denuclearization.

As the men prepared to meet for the second time in eight months, their avowed goal of achieving lasting peace and “complete denuclearization” remained elusive, but the once-imminent threat of war felt even more removed. Meanwhile, US House Democrats have introduced a bill calling for a formal end to the Korean War – which never really ended even when both sides stopped shooting – on the eve of President Trump's summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Acknowledging that "the persistence of a state of war represents a constant risk and threat to the national security of the United States and its allies," the bill calls on Trump to declare an end to the "state of war with North Korea" and recommends "serious, urgent diplomatic engagement" in pursuit of a binding peace agreement between all three countries. It does not, however, call for the withdrawal of the 28,000 American troops stationed in South Korea, or make any recommendations regarding the repeal of sanctions on the North.

The bill "urges the Trump Administration to provide a clear roadmap to achieve a final peace settlement while highlighting the importance of reciprocal actions and confidence-building measures between the parties," according to a statement from Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), who co-sponsored the bill alongside Reps. Deb Haaland (D-NM), Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), Andy Kim (D-NJ), Barbara Lee (D-CA), and Jan Schakowsky (D-IL).

North and South Korea signed their own historic peace agreement in September, pledging to demilitarize the border and begin moving towards cross-border transportation and economic cooperation, along with contact between families separated for decades by the simmering conflict. While the "hot" period of the Korean War only lasted from 1950 to 1953, more than 2.5 million Koreans were killed or wounded during that period, and many of the cities of the North were levelled.

Assessment 

Our assessment is that the stakes of the second Trump-Kim meeting may not be high but the positive impact of the summit on the bilateral relationship is massive. We believe that there will be a disagreement over Pyongyang’s denuclearization but we feel that both sides will make sizeable concessions in order to advance the talks of cooperation.