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UN warns of more Venezuelan refugees

November 10, 2018 | Expert Insights

The United Nations says there are now 3 million refugees and migrants from Venezuela.

Background

The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is located in northwest South America. In 2017, the UN estimated that the country is home to over 31 million people. The country stretches across over 900,000 square kilometres. It is bordered by the Caribbean Sea in the north, and Columbia, Guyana, and Brazil in the west, east, and south respectively. Venezuela was colonised by Spain in 1522 and became the first Spanish territory to declare independence from the empire in 1811.

Despite having the world’s largest oil deposits, many Venezuelans live in abject poverty. The former President Hugo Chavez was in office from 1999 to 2013. In that period, billions of dollars were spent on generous social programs. However, since his successor Nicolas Maduro took office, there has been a rise in inflation and a shortage of basic goods. A drop in oil prices has added to the administration’s problems.

The nation’s economy has become increasingly unstable. The IMF has estimated that the Venezuelan economy will see a reduction of 15% this year, while inflation will reach 13,000%. As of 2017, the country had only $10 billion in reserves. In November 2017, Maduro announced plans to restructure the nation’s massive foreign debt. The restructuring effort will be led by Vice President Tareck El Aissami, who will also start "the fight against the financial persecution of our country," according to Maduro.

Meanwhile, recent studies have revealed that at least 93% of the population can’t afford to buy enough food. The country faces shortages of basic goods and food supplies. Due to the current regime’s lack of regard for the democratic process, the country has multiple sanctions imposed on it by the EU and the United States.

Analysis

The U.N. refugee agency and the U.N. migration agency announced Thursday that 2.4 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants are in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the rest are in other regions worldwide. They cited data from immigration authorities and other sources.

Eduardo Stein is a joint special representative for the two agencies on the Venezuelan issue.

He said that “countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have largely maintained a commendable open-door policy to refugees and migrants from Venezuela,” but warned that “their reception capacity is severely strained.”

The agencies say Colombia has received over 1 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants, the most of any country. Peru has received over 500,000.

Since 2014, there have been recurrent protests against the government. Detractors blame the current administration’s economic policies for the crisis. The country also experiences a high level of urban violence. Since 2017, these protests have increased amongst calls for fresh elections to remove the United Socialist Party (PSUV) from power. Top opposition leaders are banned from running in elections, leading to fears that the country is spiralling towards dictatorship under Maduro.

Venezuela’s neighbouring countries have been preparing for the influx of refugees since August 2018; Brazil, Colombia and Peru hold the most number of Venezuelans. Colombia has already appealed to the UN for more humanitarian supplies and a formal relief program in the face of a massive refugee population.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the state of affairs in Venezuela demonstrates how failing economies and political systems lead to vulnerable borders. It is hyperinflation, food shortages, and political crises that have led to the mass migration of Venezuelan refugees into neighbouring countries. In situations like this, we believe that it is essential for other countries in the region to prepare appropriate systems to process and aid migrants. We believe that this has triggered an irrefutable refugee crisis in South America.