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TYRANNY AND TRIBULATIONS IN TIGRAY

October 22, 2022 | Expert Insights

After fading from international media for most of this year, the war in Tigray is back in the headlines. Since August, the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF), along with their Eritrean allies, have been gradually turning the screws on the embattled Tigran forces in a well-coordinated pincer movement. The ENDF used the five-month truce to good effect, and when it was prepared for a fresh summer offensive, it allowed the truce to collapse.

In quick succession, three strategic towns in northern Tigray fell to government forces triggering fears of an imminent humanitarian crisis as millions of civilians were caught in the crossfire. An ebullient ENDF spokesperson pronounced that the rebellion was about to be "extinguished".

UN is calling for an immediate ceasefire as it puts the people under imminent threat of starvation at over a million. This could be a reality as the rebellious province has been under a blockade for more than 18 months.

The fortunes on the battlefield have changed radically as of late last year. The Tigray forces were on the verge of capturing the strategic communication center of Debre Sina, just 190 km from Addis Ababa.

The AU had tried to organize a peace talk in South Africa early in October, which failed to materialize. Now both the AU and the Ethiopian government are claiming that these are now scheduled for October 24th. In September, the Tigray People's Liberation Front was willing to a truce as it desperately wanted unfettered humanitarian access. The blockade has been hurting civilians the most, with most essential services collapsing for almost a year.

Background

Not long ago, tourists worldwide flocked to Tigray's Muslim shrines and rock-hewn churches. The northern province of Ethiopia was a relatively peaceful area compared to other parts of the Horn of Africa till a devastating civil war engulfed the country in November 2020, changing all perceptions about it. Since then, the war has taken nearly half a million lives.

The war began after the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) had a significant fallout with the central government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. To make matters worse, the neighboring Eritrean government joined the fight on the side of the ENDF and has been accused of the worst human rights abuses. The involvement of Eritrean forces in the war has sparked condemnation nationally and internationally. Widely considered to be an aggressive nation with no adherence to international humanitarian laws, Eritrea has always had a strained relationship with the TPLF.

The recent escalation of violence started after a five-month-long ceasefire was shattered in August. The ceasefire had brought the TPLF and the Ethiopian government to the bargaining table, with international players like the United Nations (UN) overlooking de-escalation measures. However, fighting resumed once both parties were convinced that neither would budge their stance. The Ethiopian government and their Eritrean counterparts relentlessly targeted TPLF strongholds to wear them down. The attrition strategy worked, with the TPLF unable to hold off the ENDF due to a lack of ammunition.

With nearly 500,000 active troops in the war, Eritrean and ENDF forces have been accused of committing gang rapes, pillaging, and mass murders. 

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Analysis

The recent escalations follow a similar pattern observed throughout the conflict. Both parties have crafted their strategies intending to capture each other's capital. The ENDF has strategically seized areas like the Shire to mobilize troops and target Tigray's capital Mekelle. The TPLF has followed a similar strategy by targeting the Amhara and Afar regions to capture Addis Ababa.

The international community's role has had little or no impact on the ongoing conflict, which has been one of the main reasons why numerous human rights violations from both sides have been unchecked. The African Union has played an essential role in mediating between both sides. Still, with involvement in other conflicts in the continent, it has been under-resourced most of the time.

The TPLF and the ENDF have been accused of forcing civilians to join the fighting. Those selected by the army undergo menial training for a few weeks and are sent to the front lines to soak up enemy fire. This strategy of sending civilian units in waves to wear down enemy units has been effective and thus widely followed. Civilians failing to join the military are either executed or sentenced to harsh punishment.

Widespread droughts and sporadic rainfall have worsened food insecurity in Tigray. Starvation and malnutrition have exploded in the region, with reports of even wild animals (like hyenas) feeding on people. The region is experiencing a total information blackout as all bank, phone, and internet services have been suspended. These factors have aggravated the humanitarian crisis and made it impossible to get foreign assistance.

Assessment

  • Without aid services entering the region, Tigray will eventually collapse. Medical facilities and food reserves have already been crippled due to the blockade and incessant airstrikes.
  • A massive humanitarian crisis is in the making as victorious ENDF forces and their Eritrean allies are not known to be merciful to their vanquished enemies or even the civilians of captured towns and cities.
  • The international community has also been reluctant to fund regional missions since conflicts in Europe and West Asia have always been their main priority. This must change, and the sooner, the better.