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Turkey out of F-35 program?

April 3, 2019 | Expert Insights

The United States has suspended Turkey’s participation in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jet program until Ankara cancels its planned purchase of a sophisticated Russian air defence system, the Pentagon said.

Background

The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is a family of single-seat, single-engine, all-weather stealth multirole fighters. The fifth-generation combat aircraft is designed to perform ground-attack and air-superiority missions.

The United States principally funds F-35 development, with additional funding from other NATO members and close U.S. allies, including the United Kingdom, Italy, Australia, Canada, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Turkey.

Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) is a development and acquisition program intended to replace a wide range of existing fighter, strike, and ground attack aircraft for the United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Italy, Canada, Australia, the Netherlands, and their allies. The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is a derivative of the Joint Strike Fighter program and the production process involves the supply of critical components from all the development partner countries, including Turkey. Incidentally, Turkey is the sole supplier of several key F-35 parts.

Analysis

Washington’s decision to suspend Turkey from the F-35 Program is the most direct U.S. response yet, to the deteriorating conditions of a dispute with Turkey over its purchase of the Russian system, which both the Trump administration and NATO have said would compromise the technology of the new-generation stealth fighter. It comes as the United States and NATO member Turkey also are locked in a dispute over Syria, and the day after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party lost control of major cities in hard-fought local elections.

“We have . . . been clear that acquisition of the [Russian] S-400 is not compatible with the F-35,” according to a statement by Lt. Col. Mike Andrews, a Defense Department spokesman. “We very much regret the current situation . . . but the DOD is taking prudent steps to protect the shared investments made in our critical technology.”

The Pentagon order stops all “deliveries and activities” related to Turkey’s purchase of 100 of the next-generation stealth fighters. Turkey has already officially taken delivery of two of the planes, but the aircraft has remained in the United States while Turkish pilots are being trained.

Turkey is also one of the co-producers of the $85 million jet, responsible for the manufacture of key components of the fuselage and cockpit. Last year, when U.S. lawmakers first threatened to block Turkey’s participation in the F-35 program, then-Defence Secretary Jim Mattis objected, saying it could delay production lines by up to two years.

The Pentagon’s statement, however, indicated the Defence Department was prepared to take that step, saying that it was developing “secondary sources of supply for Turkish-produced parts.” Recently, a bipartisan group of senators introduced legislation prohibiting the transfer of any F-35s to Turkey. The bill, co-sponsored by Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), said that Turkey’s S-400 purchase not only risked NATO security but also was a violation of a 2017 law threatening sanctions for any allied purchase of sophisticated Russian technology.

In recent weeks, senior Trump administration officials had speculated that Erdogan was refusing to back down on the S-400 purchase to present a tough national security stance in the run-up to the local elections. They expressed hope that he would soften his position after the vote. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said after a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, that “this agreement is a done deal.”

Turkey’s desire for a sophisticated missile defence system predates the start of the civil war in neighbouring Syria, and has escalated in the wake of the 2015 Turkish shoot-down of a Russian attack aircraft that entered its territory from Syria. Russia has been Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s primary military supplier and backer in his fight against opposition forces.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the suspension of Turkey is likely to impact the F-35 production cost and schedule as Turkey was the sole supplier of several key components of the aircraft and the Pentagon will find it difficult to find a reliable alternate supplier anytime soon. We believe that the act of suspension itself was a decision of grave importance and we feel that Washington would not have taken it unless they were certain. 

 

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