Truth & lies of the Iran deal

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a revealed a cache of documents that he says proves Iran lied to the world about its nuclear program.

Background

After the Iranian revolution in 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini came into power. He did not like Israel’s friendly equation with the previous regime. He declared that Israel was an enemy to Islam.

The already tense relations further deteriorated during the 90s. The two nations started fighting in proxy wars against one another during the tenure of Mahmud Ahmedinijiad, the President of Iran from 2005 to 2013. In 2006, reports emerged that Iran had provided aid to Hezbollah fighters (a group that Israel considers a terrorist outfit) during the Lebanon War. The two regions are also locked in conflict Syria.

Israel is said to have carried out three specific airstrikes targeting Iranians during the Gaza conflict. The two nations have since blamed one another for terror attacks, assassination, cyberattacks and more.

In 2017, Mossad chief Yossi Cohen said, "As long as the current regime exists, with the nuclear agreement or without it, Iran will continue to serve as the main threat to Israel's security.” In 2017, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel said that Iran is setting up sites in Syria and Lebanon to produce missiles. Netanyahu noted that Syria was being turned into a base of military entrenchment with the aim of attacking Israel.

Iran nuclear deal

Iran nuclear deal framework refers to the agreement between Iran and a group of world powers regarding its nuclear program. Iran agreed to put limits on Iran's nuclear programs extending for at least ten years. In exchange, the international community agreed to lift most of the sanctions that had been imposed on Iran over the years.

Analysis

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has put forth a number of files that he believes proves that Iran has run a secret program to build nuclear weapons. If it is proved true, then it means that Iran is in direct violation of the nuclear deal. He states that these documents have been obtained from Iran by Mossad.

"Tonight I'm here to tell you one thing. Iran lied, big time," he said. It should be noted that the information within the documents presented by the Israeli leader do not reveal any new information that was not known to diplomats who negotiated the deal. Netanyahu said the files provided "new and conclusive proof of the secret nuclear weapons program that Iran has been hiding for years from the international community in its secret atomic archive."

Netanyahu said the documents provided a wealth of new information. "When we got this trove of 100,000 documents, we learned so many things we didn't know. We're still learning them," he said.

"We learned an enormous amount about Iran's secret nuclear program. Now, the deal that everybody is talking about was premised on the fact that Iran had no such material. But Iran bothered, took enormous pains after the nuclear deal and before but especially after to hide this information. It's like an arsenal of knowledge."

Counterpoint

Thomas Countryman, former acting undersecretary of State for arms control and international security has however underplayed the importance of the files. "Everything else he said were things we knew 10 years ago or more," Countryman told CNBC. "It was very much in our minds as we negotiated and it's specifically why the agreement is so detailed." Iran, meanwhile, has called Netanyahu "an infamous liar" over these allegations.

US President Donald Trump, who opposes the accord, has until 12 May to decide whether to abandon it or not. In fact, Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has accused Netanyahu of timing his press conference to influence Trump’s decision.

Assessment

Our assessment is that the current revelation will not significantly alter the trajectory of the nuclear deal. The US is mindful of the support that the Iranians have from Europe including its strongest ally, UK. It would be hard for President Trump to appease Netanyahu, who himself is embroiled in controversies back home.